Archive for February, 2016

JPM on BOJ Ease

Thursday, February 11th, 2016

Beware the Ides of March. Via Barron's : By Robert Guy JPMorgan has penciled in March 15 as the day when the Bank of Japan will take another step deeper into negative interest rates territory. The bank says yen strength will force the central bank’s hand as the stronger currency is a threat to ...

Treasury Time in Tokyo

Thursday, February 11th, 2016

One dealer reports that there is two way flow in 5s with active traders lined up on sell side and bank portfolios on the buy side. The same dealer notes that MOF and BOJ jawboning has held equities above 15K and dollar/yen above 112.00

Are Markets Signalling Recession?

Thursday, February 11th, 2016

Excellent article from Greg Ip at the WSJ: By Greg Ip Updated Feb. 11, 2016 8:41 p.m. ET 0 COMMENTS Is the U.S. headed for recession? The markets suggest so. With Thursday’s selloff, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is now down 14.5% from its all-time high last May. Yields on risky bonds continue to climb, ...

From the Oh Canada Department

Thursday, February 11th, 2016

Fascinating article on how the weak Cad dollar is costing hockey players bucks. Via Bloomberg: he NHL has a loonie problem. The Canadian dollar fell to 68¢ last month against the U.S. dollar, a 13-year low, and analysts think it could drop an additional 13 percent in 2016. The weakened state of the ...

Self Fulfilling Prophecies

Thursday, February 11th, 2016

Via the FT: 6 hours ago by: John Authers This wasn’t supposed to happen. As world stocks at last lapsed into a bear market on Thursday, so currency and bond markets headed in precisely the opposite direction to the one mapped for them by central banks. The sense that central banks can no longer ...

Mini Flash Crash in Dec 19 Euros

Thursday, February 11th, 2016

Via WSJ: By Katy Burne Feb. 11, 2016 5:47 p.m. ET 0 COMMENTS A brief surge Thursday morning in the price of a popular derivative used to bet on central-bank rate moves is the latest sign of markets reacting in unexpected ways under stress. A eurodollar-futures contract expiring in December 2019 rose sharply to 99.735 ...

Overnight Data Preview

Thursday, February 11th, 2016

Via Robert Sinche at Amherst Pierpont Securities: AUSTRALIA: The Bberg consensus expects another 3.0% rise in Home Loans in December, capping a year of solid gains in home loans as interest rates hold near record lows. CHINA: During the week ahead China will release January data on both Bank Loans and the ...

Initial Claims

Thursday, February 11th, 2016

Via Stephen Stanley at Amherst Pierpont Securities: suspected, turned out to be snowstorm-related.  The state-by-state figures reveal that the number of new filers jumped in the week ended January 30 in several of the states that bore the brunt of the big East Coast blizzard (Tennessee, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey) ...

Market Musings

Thursday, February 11th, 2016

Via Robert Sinche at Amherst Pierpont Securities: Over coffee with a few friends not involved in markets on a full-time basis we discussed the source of global uncertainty concerns…additions/comments appreciated. 1.       Are Central banks “out of bullets”? the Fed balance sheet has stabilized (contracted slightly) and already there are negative policy rates ...

Thirty Year Auction Preview

Thursday, February 11th, 2016

Via Ian Lyngen at CRT Capital: We are cautiously optimistic on the outlook for this afternoon's long-bond Refunding auction - but that assumes more of a concession, either outright or on the curve, will be needed to take it down without a tail.  Refunding 30-years have a long history of tailing, ...