Archive for January, 2016
Tuesday, January 5th, 2016
As an aging baby boomer I thought this was the best line (and even oxymoronic) in the article:
"the ruling Communist Party is struggling to let markets have more sway in the world’s second-largest economy"
It would seem that Marx and Lenin are spinning in their graves on that one and even ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on China Intervention
Tuesday, January 5th, 2016
Via the FT:
Oops, Europe did it again, with a (mildly) disappointing set of inflation data.
Eurostat said the annual inflation rate held steady at 0.2 per cent in December, according to its first estimate. Economists had expected a rate of 0.3 per cent, but following a drab inflation reading from Germany ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on EuroZone Inflation Underwhelms
Tuesday, January 5th, 2016
Prices of Treasury coupon securities have posted mixed results in overnight trading (measured against 500PM NY levels). The 2 year note is the laggard as its yield has increased to 1.044 from 1.040 at 500PM. The yield on the 3 year note slipped to 1.302 from 1.307. The yield on ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Overnight in the Treasury Market
Monday, January 4th, 2016
The latest forecast from the Atlanta Fed has Q4 GDP running at 0.7 percent. The previous forecast back on December 23 was 1.7 percent. Q2 GDP was 3.9 percent and Q3 was 2.0 percent. If for argument sake we assume the correctness on the Atlanta Fed forecast, then I would ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Atlanta Fed GDP Now Forecast
Monday, January 4th, 2016
Via Robert Sinche at Amherst Pierpont Securities:
S. KOREA: The end-December data on Foreign Reserves is the first such release for the month, and S. Korea has kept reserves stable and allowed the KRW to weaken.
JAPAN: Monetary Base growth (YOY) is likely to remain close to the 32.5% gain reported for ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Overnight Data Preview
Monday, January 4th, 2016
This is an excellent piece from PIMCO on the interconnectedness of repo , dealer balance sheets and swap spreads. It is a great read if you want to understand what is happening in those markets.
Via Pimco and click here for link:
Since the financial crisis in 2008, global regulators have been ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Swap Spreads and Repo and Balance Sheets and Regulation
Monday, January 4th, 2016
This is from a market maker who requires anonymity. I have very slightly edited this note to remove references which might compromise that quest for anonymity.
Via a fully paid up subscriber:
2015...Looking back the winning trade was the US dollar and the commodity price plunge (or being in the 4 stocks ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Swap Market Commentary
Monday, January 4th, 2016
Via Millan Mulraine at TDSecurities:
US: Manufacturing Sector Takes Turn for Worse
· The ISM manufacturing sector index slipped to 48.2 in December from 48.6, suggesting a further weakening in manufacturing sector activity.
· The sluggish performance reflects the continued impact from the strong dollar, lower energy prices and weak global demand.
· The ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on PMI Data
Monday, January 4th, 2016
Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman:
Markets in Turmoil - Drivers for the Week (and Year) Ahead
- The markets begin the New Year in turmoil from a combination of weak China data and rising Middle East tensions
- Yet, the start of a new calendar year does not necessarily mean ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on FX
Monday, January 4th, 2016
Via Bloomberg:
Manufacturing in the euro area accelerated at the fastest pace in 20 months in December as rising new orders propelled output.
A Purchasing Managers’ Index for the industry rose to 53.2 from 52.8 in November, exceeding a Dec. 16 estimate for an increase to 53.1, Markit Economics said on Monday. ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Euro Area Manufacturing