Archive for January, 2016

Cover Jinx

Thursday, January 7th, 2016

Via Robert Sinche at Amherst Pierpont Securities: For those of us who remember the infamous BW covers – The Death of Equities in 1979, (Apple) The Fall of an  American Icon in 1996, etc and the talk by celebrities of getting paid in Euros in July 2008, right at the peak…one ...

Overnight Data Preview

Thursday, January 7th, 2016

Via Robert Sinche at Amherst Pierpont Securities: CHINA: the monthly CPI and PPI reports are expected to show more of the same, with the BBerg consensus expecting the CPI to inch up to 1.6% YOY in December  from 1.5% while the PPI falls -5.8% YOY, which would be the 46th consecutive ...

A Yen to Sell Dollar Yen

Thursday, January 7th, 2016

Via TDSecurities: TD Securities USDJPY:  End of the Line § After a rally spanning over three years, we think the next sustained move for USDJPY will be lower. We think the June 2015 high should hold as the last year’s narrow range breaks down. Indeed, with USDJPY sharply lower in recent days, this process ...

Very Active Overnight Session

Thursday, January 7th, 2016

Via CRT Capital (an excerpt from their longer morning note): OVERNIGHT FLOWS:  Treasuries rallied modestly on the back of lower global equities.  Overnight volumes were particularly strong with cash trading at 427% of the 10-day moving-average for the most active session since mid-August.  TY came in at 412% of the norm ...

Oil Undermining FOMC

Thursday, January 7th, 2016

Interesting note from  Chris Low at FTN Financial: Yesterday, Fed Vice Chairman Fischer told CNBC the market is wrong to price in just two rate hikes in 2016. “Four is in the ballpark,” he said. But the minutes suggest some FOMC members do not think the case is as cut and dried. ...

FX

Thursday, January 7th, 2016

Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman: Dollar Mixed as Risk Off Takes Hold   - The uncertainty over the intentions of Chinese policy makers, and the opaqueness of the decision-making process, rightfully spooks investors who recall the contagion effect last August - The drop in oil prices is a significant ...

Soros on Similarity of Current Situation to 2008

Thursday, January 7th, 2016

Via Bloomberg: Global markets are facing a crisis and investors need to be very cautious, billionaire George Soros told an economic forum in Sri Lanka on Thursday. China is struggling to find a new growth model and its currency devaluation is transferring problems to the rest of the world, Soros said in ...

” Encumbered By Unrelenting Oversupply”

Thursday, January 7th, 2016

Via the WSJ: By Georgi Kantchev and Jenny W. Hsu Updated Jan. 7, 2016 5:27 a.m. ET 0 COMMENTS LONDON—Oil prices plunged to levels not seen in more than a decade on Thursday, hammered by the continuing turmoil in China, the world’s second biggest oil consumer. China’s stock market tumbled and suffered its shortest trading day ...

More Treasury Flow

Thursday, January 7th, 2016

Another dealer reporting chunky central bank selling of 2s and 3s in overnight session.

Spread Note

Thursday, January 7th, 2016

One interesting point to me is that European peripherals are not trading well. I watch 10 year Spain and Italy on a WSJ Market Data page and Italy is 5/32 lower and Spain is 8/32 lower. I assume that is from prior day closes. I regularly follow the spread of ...