Archive for January, 2016

Commodity Pain

Sunday, January 10th, 2016

Via the New York Times: China’s Hunger for Commodities Wanes, and Pain Spreads Among Producers By CLIFFORD KRAUSSJAN. 9, 2016     Chile is expanding its largest open-pit copper mine below the northern desert to dig up 1.7 billion additional tons of minerals, even as metal prices plummet around the globe. India is building railroad lines ...

Shrinkage

Sunday, January 10th, 2016

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Williams said on Friday that it would take six years for the Fed to return its balance sheet to normal size. Via Bloomberg: It will take the U.S. central bank at least six years to reduce its bloated balance sheet back to more a normal ...

Apparatchiks Losing Control in China

Sunday, January 10th, 2016

Via the WSJ: By Greg Ip and Bob Davis Updated Jan. 10, 2016 1:12 p.m. ET The convulsions in China’s stock and currency markets this past week fanned investors’ worst fears: The world’s second biggest economy is in trouble and the authorities are powerless to fix it. The truth is less frightening, but still fraught. ...

China: “Largely Stable and Healthy”

Sunday, January 10th, 2016

Via the FT: China’s financial system is “largely stable and healthy,” the country’s foreign exchange regulator said at the weekend in an effort to reassure global markets as investors braced for a possible resumption of last week’s market turmoil. Attention is likely to focus on China’s central bank and its management of ...

Positions

Friday, January 8th, 2016

Via Bloomberg and my friend Steve Liddy: BFW 01/04 20:44 RATES: Asset Managers Net Long 2Y Futures, CFTC Says BFW 12/28 20:50 RATES: Leveraged Longs Dwindle in Short End, CFTC Says BFW 12/18 21:01 RATES: Record Asset Manager Net Long in 5Y Futures, CFTC Says BFW 12/11 20:48 RATES: Record Asset Manager Net Long ...

Weekend Data Preview

Friday, January 8th, 2016

Via Robert Sinche at Amherst Pierpont Securities: CHINA: the monthly CPI and PPI reports are expected to show more of the same, with the Bberg consensus expecting the CPI to inch up to 1.6% YOY in December  from 1.5% while the PPI falls -5.8% YOY, which would be the 46th consecutive ...

Morning Miscellany

Friday, January 8th, 2016

The 5 year note is en fuego today. The 5s 10s spread has steepened to 55.7 from 53.8 just prior to 830AM. Similarly 5s 30s has moved to 134.5 from 131. The 2s 5s 10s spread has moved to 9.1 from 11.1. That spread closed 2012 at about 18 basis ...

New Issues

Friday, January 8th, 2016

Via  Bloomberg:

labor Data Analysis

Friday, January 8th, 2016

Via Millan Mulraine at TDSecurities: TD SECURITIES DATAFLASH                    US:  Strong Jobs Growth Keeps March Hike in Play ·         The US economy added jobs at a very brisk 292K pace, bettering the market consensus for a more modest 200K rise. ·         Positive net revisions, rising participation rate and strong gains in household employment speak to ...

Evans on the Dollar and Rate Hikes

Thursday, January 7th, 2016

Via Bloomberg and story notes Evans does not have vote this year: Fed’s Evans Signals Stronger Dollar May Mean Slower Tightening 2016-01-07 20:20:32.377 GMT By Matthew Boesler (Bloomberg) -- Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans says “I’m a little nervous about manufacturing and the dollar and relative prices.” * “But still, I think the fundamentals are ...