Archive for December, 2015

FX

Friday, December 11th, 2015

Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman: Dollar Mixed Ahead of US Retail Sales - The US dollar is confined to narrow ranges against the euro and sterling after pushing higher yesterday - Weak commodity prices and the loss of upside momentum has seen profit-taking in AUD and NZD - The price ...

IEA on Oil Glut

Friday, December 11th, 2015

The International Energy Agency expects that the oil glut will continue well into 2016. Via WSJ: By Georgi Kantchev Dec. 11, 2015 5:35 a.m. ET 0 COMMENTS LONDON—Oil prices fell in a volatile session Friday after a top energy watchdog said low prices are taking a toll on supply but that isn’t yet enough to ...

Turmoil in South Africa

Friday, December 11th, 2015

Via Bloomberg: South African banking and insurance stocks plunged for a second day as President Jacob Zuma’s shock dismissal of Finance Minister Nhlanhla Nene drove government bond yields higher and weakened the rand, pushing up funding costs for lenders. The banking index fell as much as 11 percent in Johannesburg, adding to ...

Oil and Consumption

Friday, December 11th, 2015

Via the WSJ: By Eric Morath Dec. 10, 2015 1:52 p.m. ET When oil and gasoline prices began to tumble in mid-2014, experts widely expected it would jolt spending by U.S. consumers and businesses. It hasn’t turned out that way. Instead, the pace of business investment has slowed significantly, due to drags from ...

Shades of 2008, Part Two

Thursday, December 10th, 2015

Earlier I posted this article about a high yield mutual fund stuck in a decidedly sticky wicket as its investors flee to safe sanctuary elsewhere in the capital markets. I entitled the piece "Shades of 2008". The WSJ Heard on the Street column expands on that theme. Via the WSJ: Canary in ...

Shades of 2008

Thursday, December 10th, 2015

As the author of the blog I am a permitted to employ some hyperbole when I have the urge. It would take quite some time to recreate 2008 again but this story carries a little whiff of that momentous year. According to the WSJ a battered high yield mutual fund,the ...

Overnight Data Preview

Thursday, December 10th, 2015

Via Robert Sinche at Amherst Pierpont Securities: CHINA: November Monetary data will be released during the days ahead with our focus on the Aggregate Financing Activity data. It fell to a very weak CNY476.7bn in October and the BBerg consensus expects a rebound to CNY970.0bn in November, still weak for a ...

Thirty Year Bond Result

Thursday, December 10th, 2015

I am in Manhattan today and will shortly have lunch with a friend. I am sitting outside a restaurant at the corner of  West 12th Street and West 4th Street. They should not intersect. You can learn something new about Manhattan every time you come in here. I would commend to ...

Repo Market Seeks Back Stop

Thursday, December 10th, 2015

Via the WSJ: By KATY BURNE Dec. 9, 2015 7:16 p.m. ET A firm at the center of Wall Street’s plumbing is seeking $50 billion in commitments from banks and trading firms to shore up a crucial but increasingly illiquid short-term lending market, according to people familiar with the discussions. Depository Trust & Clearing ...

Lower Rates ?

Thursday, December 10th, 2015

Steven King is chief economist for HSBC (which has a line on my resume) and he has an op ed in the FT. He expects that by year end 2016 we will be staring at a 1.50 10 year note. If that be the case then I suspect that the ...