Archive for December, 2015

CPI Dissected

Tuesday, December 15th, 2015

Via Millan Mulraine at TDSecurities: TD SECURITIES DATAFLASH                    US:  Domestic Inflation Momentum Continues to Build ·         The headline CPI index was flat on the month, as weaker energy and food prices offset the gain the core CPI components. ·         Core prices were up at a relatively brisk 0.2% m/m pace, as rising medical costs ...

Whither the Euro Dollar?

Tuesday, December 15th, 2015

Via Robert Sinche at Amherst Pierpont Securities: We noted yesterday that we were surprised that the CFTC data released last Friday showed little short-covering of large short positions in the EUR among non-commercial traders as of last Tuesday, December 8. EUR/USD has been testing the 200-day (1.1033) and 100-day (1.1062) moving ...

Excellent Swap Commentary

Tuesday, December 15th, 2015

This market maker in swaps occasionally writes some commentary which is always well received by readers. He must remain anonymous. Via an anonymous market maker: Swap spreads narrowed 4 basis points across the board in an orderly low volume trade.  The move in spreads was out-sized given the move in rates and ...

FX

Tuesday, December 15th, 2015

Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman: Dollar Softer As Two-Day FOMC Meeting Begins - Sweden's Riksbank is the first of four major central banks to meet this week; Norway's central bank meets Thursday - The Federal Reserve's much-anticipated meeting starts today - There have been some teeth-gnashing over the sharp sell-off in ...

What to Watch Today

Tuesday, December 15th, 2015

Via the good folks at Bloomberg: WHAT TO WATCH: * (All times New York) * Economic Data * 8:30am: Empire Manufacturing, Dec., est. -7 (prior -10.74) * 8:30am: CPI m/m, Nov., est. 0% (prior 0.2%) * CPI Ex Food and Energy m/m, Nov., est. 0.2% (prior 0.2%) * CPI y/y, Nov., est. 0.4% (prior 0.2%) * CPI Ex Food and ...

Summers and Roubini Argue Against Rate Hike

Tuesday, December 15th, 2015

My friend Steve Liddy forwarded this Bloomberg in which both Larry Summers and Nouriel Roubini argue against a rate hike this week. Via Bloomberg: Summers, Roubini Warn of Premature Federal Reserve Rate Move (1) 2015-12-15 09:16:16.359 GMT By Tom Keene and Nafeesa Syeed (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve policy makers risk making a mistake that will be ...

Iron Ore Companies at the Edge

Tuesday, December 15th, 2015

The price of iron ore has plummeted along with the price of most commodities. The CEO of Rio Tinto says that has placed the industry on the cusp of a shakeup. Via Bloomberg: Iron ore industry on the verge of unprecedented shake-out Only four producers profitable at current price: Citigroup The iron ore collapse ...

German ZEW

Tuesday, December 15th, 2015

Via the FT: German financial analysts are feeling some festive cheer, and even better, they’re spreading it. Their assessments of both current and future economic conditions jumped in December, topping expectations and bringing a dour year to a cheerful close. The ZEW index of current economic sentiment clocked in at 55, ahead ...

Treasury Flow

Tuesday, December 15th, 2015

Dealers are reporting better buying of 7 year through 30 year paper (in modest size) by yen funded clients. Bank portfolios bought 2 s and 3s.

Energy Portfolio “Stress”

Tuesday, December 15th, 2015

Wells Fargo reports that the weakness in the price of energy has resulted in "stresses" in its energy portfolio. Via the FT: The head of corporate banking at Wells Fargo, the biggest bank in the world by market capitalisation, has warned of “stresses” in its energy portfolio, as the ongoing slump in ...