Archive for December, 2015
Thursday, December 17th, 2015
Via Kit Juckes at SocGen:
)<http://www.sgmarkets.com/r/?id=hf6107ff,1535d1fb,1535d1fc&p1=136122&p2=3a1611215ef95e500289a28069a10913>
The overnight reaction to the Fed rate hike has seen equity markets rally, oil prices remain very soft, commodity currencies fall back, and the dollar rally across the board. It is up against all the other G10 currencies. I wanted a dollar dip to buy and ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Early FX
Thursday, December 17th, 2015
A fully paid up subscriber forwarded this and cited a Reuters article which reports that a poll of primary dealers anticipates the next rate hike in March.
Via a fully paid up subscriber:
POST FOMC 13 of 21 primary dealers per Reuters Poll say Fed will next raise rates in Q1, rest ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Next Rate Hike
Wednesday, December 16th, 2015
Via FT:
PBoC weakens RMB fix for 9th day in a row
by: Patrick McGee
The People’s Bank of China has set the fix for the renminbi weaker yet again, for a ninth straight session, following the Federal Reserve’s historic decision to lift interest rates from crisis-era lows.
The PBoC set the fix, or ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Weaker Renminbi Again
Wednesday, December 16th, 2015
Via Kit Juckes
<http://www.sgmarkets.com/r/?id=hf5fede8,15343d8c,15343d8d&p1=136122&p2=c128203ba03651f5572f7ef1c2c8583a>
A Dovish hike, aimed at causing minimum market stress
The FOMC has finally raised the Fed Funds rate, as universally expected, by 25bp. The text of the FOMC Statement is at least as dovish as most market participants had expected, suggesting that with “gradual adjustments in the stance of ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on FX Post FOMC
Wednesday, December 16th, 2015
Via Bloomberg:
December 16, 2015 — 2:09 PM EST
The Federal Reserve removed the daily limit on aggregate borrowings through its overnight reverse repurchase facility, previously set at $300 billion, in a step designed to make sure the benchmark interest rate stays inside its new target range.
The size of the facility will ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Uncapped Repo
Wednesday, December 16th, 2015
Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman:
Fe Fi Fo Fed
- The much awaited Fed meeting is here
- We have argued the dot-plots have a high noise to signal ratio because non-voters are included
- The eurozone flash December PMI was mixed; the final read of November CPI ticked up ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on FX
Wednesday, December 16th, 2015
The FT reports that oil's attempt to mimic a moribund feline striking the pavement has failed as oil resumes its slide.
Via the FT:
Dead cat bounce in oil prices appears to be over
by: Nathalie Thomas
That didn’t last long.
The dead cat bounce that lifted oil prices from Monday’s lows looks to be ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Dead Cat Bounce Over
Wednesday, December 16th, 2015
Government shutdown averted.
Via the WSJ:
By
Kristina Peterson and
Richard Rubin
Updated Dec. 16, 2015 2:49 a.m. ET
WASHINGTON—Congressional leaders early Wednesday unveiled a sweeping deal on spending and tax legislation that would avoid a government shutdown and make major changes to energy policy and the 2010 health law.
The $1.15 trillion spending bill ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Tax and Spending Bill Agreement
Wednesday, December 16th, 2015
Via Kit Juckes at SocGen:
<http://www.sgmarkets.com/r/?id=hf5ef916,15326f43,15326f44&p1=136122&p2=02db90d08f926ebb0519d1b09409bafe>
At this point, my brain's scrambled. Yesterday was all about positions being taken off, but did I know that would mean option expiries taking EUR/USD sharply lower in the afternoon? No I did not... We've waited so long for this policy move that the initial reaction ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Early FX
Tuesday, December 15th, 2015
Via the WSJ:
By THEO FRANCIS And KATE LINEBAUGH
Dec. 14, 2015 8:28 p.m. ET
20 COMMENTS
A financial obfuscation of the dot-com era is making a comeback: Hundreds of U.S. companies are trumpeting adjusted net income, adjusted sales and “adjusted Ebitda.”
These adjusted measures paint a rosier picture of corporate earnings. Without them, third-quarter ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Beware of Adjusted Earnings