Archive for December, 2015
Sunday, December 6th, 2015
Via WSJ:
By
Brian Blackstone
Dec. 6, 2015 6:24 a.m. ET
FRANKFURT—Emerging markets are at risk of negative fallout from an eventual rise in U.S. interest rates despite more settled conditions in financial markets in the fourth quarter, the Bank for International Settlements said Sunday.
“The calm has been uneasy,” said BIS economics ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Emerging Markets and Fed Rate Hikes
Sunday, December 6th, 2015
Via Reuters:
Hints by Mario Draghi ahead of last Thursday's ECB rate meeting that the euro zone may need another big injection of money backfired, stiffening the resolve of more conservative central bankers who criticized him for raising expectations too high, sources familiar with the discussions said.
The European Central Bank President ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on ECB Discord
Sunday, December 6th, 2015
Via the NYTimes:
A slow and gradual approach to rate increases is what the Fed has telegraphed and is very much what investors expect and desire. But this may not be what they get.
That’s the view of Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. Investors who think the Fed’s rate increases ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Will it be Gradual?
Saturday, December 5th, 2015
The quote is from a WSJ article on the collapse of oil prices and the inability of OPEC to stem the decline. The article notes that the world will be in a state of oversupply next year as Iranian oil hits the market and American drillers continue to extract oil ...
Posted in Uncategorized | 1 Comment »
Thursday, December 3rd, 2015
Great article discussing the death of the business model which prevailed in the thirty five years I was a bond market practitioner.
Via the WSJ:
By GREGORY ZUCKERMAN, JUSTIN BAER and MIKE CHERNEY
Updated Dec. 2, 2015 9:33 p.m. ET
The Masters of the Universe don’t all live on Wall Street anymore.
The shift in ...
Posted in Uncategorized | 1 Comment »
Thursday, December 3rd, 2015
Via Stephen Stanley at Amherst Pierpont Securities:
As expected, Chair Yellen’s testimony this morning to the JEC was taken word for word from yesterday’s speech. Perhaps in the interest of brevity, Chair Yellen trimmed her remarks for today to about half the length of yesterday’s speech. I suppose that if you’d ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Data Analysis
Thursday, December 3rd, 2015
Via a fully paid up subscriber:
What some banks are calling for:
GS - Depo rate to be lowered by 10bps to -30bps, QE extension through end of 3Q’17 with emphasis on its open-endness. A larger depo cut will not find a sufficient majority in the GC. An increase in the monthly ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on What Will ECB Do?
Thursday, December 3rd, 2015
Via a fully paid up subscriber:
Ahead of the ECB rate decision, please find below a primer on some of the mechanics of how the ECB announce the decision, including how sometimes the market gets an early heads up on whether the ECB has moved rates.
We also want to highlight the ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on ECB Primer
Thursday, December 3rd, 2015
Via Bloomberg:
More ECB Stimulus Would Raise Question of Insanity: Mark Gilbert
2015-12-03 06:00:04.205 GMT
By Mark Gilbert
(Bloomberg View) -- European Central Bank President Mario
Draghi has all but promised to expand and extend the
institution's quantitative easing program when the ECB meets
Thursday. But the logic by which he arrives at the argument for
more QE would ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on A Contrary View
Thursday, December 3rd, 2015
Via Kit Juckes at SocGen:
<http://www.sgmarkets.com/r/?id=hf44feb3,150bed55,150bed56&p1=136122&p2=93e05e737142a844fc413ca3fc8eeaa1>
We continue our frenetic lurch from major event to major event and arrive at ECB Day. Everyone expects Mariuo Dragho to arrive with a hat and crucially, to produce a rabbit from it. We expect a 10bp cut in the ECB's Deposit Rate to -0.3% at ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Early FX