Archive for December, 2015
Monday, December 7th, 2015
Treasury Secretary Jack Lew and his subalterns will sell $58 billion worth of 3s, 10s, and 30s this week. Here is the view of Gennadiy Goldberg on the reception the market will accord that issuance:
Treasury will auction a combined $58bn in supply this week, selling $24bn in 3s on Tuesday, ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Refunding Week
Monday, December 7th, 2015
Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman:
- The US employment data removed what was perceived as the last potential hurdle to Fed decision to hike rates later this month
- The Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the Swiss National Bank and the Bank of England meet in the week ahead
- ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on FX
Monday, December 7th, 2015
I just published this about the right wing surge this weekend in France. I mused on the possibility that the National Front victory there reflects the same sentiment in France as the rise of Donald Trump here in the US.
Gideon Rachman of the FT has written a column about the ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on On the Rise of Extremism
Monday, December 7th, 2015
In France the far right National Front won its biggest victory since its inception in 1972. I wonder if that outcome is similar to the sentiment here which has kept the clownish Donald Trump in the lead for the GOP nomination here in the US. I am not well versed ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Far Right Surge in France
Monday, December 7th, 2015
I was long some note contracts Thursday morning when the ECB underwhelmed investors and I lost several shekels before I stopped myself out. I was not alone in my pain as the WSJ reports on the fate of hedge funds who had on much bigger bets than the two contracts ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on “Draghed” Through the Mud
Monday, December 7th, 2015
Via Kit Juckes at SocGen:
<http://www.sgmarkets.com/r/?id=hf4ac598,15144a77,15144a78&p1=136122&p2=d54c3b2cf2b9155f7592eabe7613b1f4>
Last Thursday ranks third in the last of top EUR/USD ranges since inception. If I look at a ‘Baker's Dozen' of big moves since 1999 I get a nice symmetry - 9 of them occurred in the 6 months after the start of the financial crisis ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Early FX
Monday, December 7th, 2015
Via a Bloomberg and my friend Steve Liddy:
Bond Trader Hubris Reaches Inflection Point as Fed Liftoff Looms
2015-12-07 03:25:51.31 GMT
By Alexandra Scaggs and Liz Capo McCormick
(Bloomberg) -- For years, one of the easiest ways for bond
traders to make money has come from being skeptical of the
Federal Reserve’s view on interest rates.
Now, ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Bond Trader Hubris
Sunday, December 6th, 2015
Larry Summers with a dour note on tenuous nature of central bank power and fragility of global economy published in the FT> Excellent read:
While debate about the relevance of the secular stagnation idea to current economic conditions continues to rage, there is now almost universal acceptance of a crucial part ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Why Central Banks Should Not Be Overconfident
Sunday, December 6th, 2015
Via the WSJ:
By Erin Ailworth and
Bradley Olson
Dec. 6, 2015 6:56 p.m. ET
5 COMMENTS
The standoff between major global energy producers that has created an oil glut is set to continue next year in full force, as much because of the U.S. as of OPEC.
American shale drillers have only trimmed their pumping ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Oil Glut
Sunday, December 6th, 2015
Via the WSJ:
By Matt Wirz
Updated Dec. 6, 2015 1:40 p.m. ET
21 COMMENTS
Junk bonds are headed for their first annual loss since the credit crisis, reflecting concerns among investors that a six-year U.S. economic expansion and accompanying stock-market boom are on borrowed time.
U.S. corporate high-yield bonds are down 2% this year, ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Canary in the Junk Bond Coal Mine?