Archive for November, 2015

Small Cracks in the Deal Front

Thursday, November 19th, 2015

The equity market rally is getting long in the tooth as it began back in March 2009 and the seven year itch so to speak is nigh. The rally has been built on central bank liquidity and share buybacks. Anemic corporate profits and a strong dollar challenge it. One of ...

Overnight

Thursday, November 19th, 2015

The Treasury curve continues to power flatten and the Long Bond leads the move. Dealers report Asian buyers of 10s on an outright basis and other real money Asian based clients selling 5s and 7s in favor of the Long Bond.

End of an Era

Wednesday, November 18th, 2015

Via the NTimes: Robert F. Dall, Mastermind of Mortgage-Backed Bonds, Dies at 81 By LANDON THOMAS Jr.NOV. 18, 2015     Robert F. Dall, an investment banker and a pioneer of the mortgage bond market on Wall Street, died on Sunday at Lenox Hill Hospital in Manhattan. He was 81. A son, Matthew, said the cause ...

China Business Sentiment Slides

Wednesday, November 18th, 2015

Via the FT 23 minutes ago Chinese business sentiment continues to gyrate this month, as companies struggle to weigh recent easing action from policy-makers with slowing growth and a clouded outlook. The MNI China Business Indicator fell 10.3 per cent this month, to 49.9 - just below the 50 threshold needed to indicate ...

FOMC Minutes

Wednesday, November 18th, 2015

Via Stephen Stanley at Amherst Pierpont Securities: The October FOMC minutes are not particularly surprising, but they do flesh out the thought process behind the hawkish changes to the language in the most recent FOMC statement.  Here is what we learned today about the Fed’s thinking: 1)      “Most participants saw the downside ...

From the Oh Canada Department

Wednesday, November 18th, 2015

Via Bloomberg: U.S. output seen rebounding faster when market recovers Canadian industry struggles with drill times, efficiency: BI OPEC took a swing at U.S. shale and knocked down Canada. Threatened by surging production from North America, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has been pumping above its quota for 17 months as it seeks ...

China as the New Japan

Wednesday, November 18th, 2015

This is an excellent article by Greg Ip at the WSJ which compares Japan and China and argues that without proper policy prescriptions China faces the same deflationary sinkhole that has gripped Japan for a generation. Via the WSJ: By GREG IP Nov. 18, 2015 12:25 p.m. ET Donald Trump, if elected, says he’ll brand ...

Risk Aversion

Wednesday, November 18th, 2015

This is another story forwarded by my friend and former colleague Steve Liddy. It recounts the travails of a Danish mortgage lender. In Steve's cooments he refers to a story which I sent last night . Via Bloomberg: Veritas HY deal tabled (8:29 'Risk Off?) and Danish Securitized 3y downsized, in an ...

On Line Sales Growth Slows at Target and Walmart

Wednesday, November 18th, 2015

Via Bloomberg: Target Corp. and Wal-Mart Stores Inc. both saw a big slowdown in online sales growth last quarter, fueling concern that the brick-and-mortar chains aren’t transitioning fast enough to e-commerce. Target’s Internet sales grew 20 percent third quarter, missing the 30 percent gain it expected, the retailer said on Wednesday. The ...

Fedspeak

Wednesday, November 18th, 2015

Via Chris Low at FTN Financial: The key headlines (from Bloomberg News): *DUDLEY SAYS HE LOOKS FORWARD TO DAY WHEN FED CAN RAISE RATES *DUDLEY SAYS LIFTOFF WILL SIGNAL FED'S CONFIDENCE IN ECONOMY *MESTER SAYS ECONOMY CAN HANDLE A 25 BASIS POINT MOVE *LACKER SAYS STRONG CONSUMER SPENDING WARRANTS RATE HIKE *LOCKHART: HE'S PREPARED TO TAKE ...