Archive for November, 2015
Thursday, November 19th, 2015
The equity market rally is getting long in the tooth as it began back in March 2009 and the seven year itch so to speak is nigh. The rally has been built on central bank liquidity and share buybacks. Anemic corporate profits and a strong dollar challenge it. One of ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Small Cracks in the Deal Front
Thursday, November 19th, 2015
The Treasury curve continues to power flatten and the Long Bond leads the move. Dealers report Asian buyers of 10s on an outright basis and other real money Asian based clients selling 5s and 7s in favor of the Long Bond.
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Overnight
Wednesday, November 18th, 2015
Via the NTimes:
Robert F. Dall, Mastermind of Mortgage-Backed Bonds, Dies at 81
By LANDON THOMAS Jr.NOV. 18, 2015
Robert F. Dall, an investment banker and a pioneer of the mortgage bond market on Wall Street, died on Sunday at Lenox Hill Hospital in Manhattan. He was 81.
A son, Matthew, said the cause ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on End of an Era
Wednesday, November 18th, 2015
Via the FT
23 minutes ago
Chinese business sentiment continues to gyrate this month, as companies struggle to weigh recent easing action from policy-makers with slowing growth and a clouded outlook.
The MNI China Business Indicator fell 10.3 per cent this month, to 49.9 - just below the 50 threshold needed to indicate ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on China Business Sentiment Slides
Wednesday, November 18th, 2015
Via Stephen Stanley at Amherst Pierpont Securities:
The October FOMC minutes are not particularly surprising, but they do flesh out the thought process behind the hawkish changes to the language in the most recent FOMC statement. Here is what we learned today about the Fed’s thinking:
1) “Most participants saw the downside ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on FOMC Minutes
Wednesday, November 18th, 2015
Via Bloomberg:
U.S. output seen rebounding faster when market recovers
Canadian industry struggles with drill times, efficiency: BI
OPEC took a swing at U.S. shale and knocked down Canada.
Threatened by surging production from North America, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries has been pumping above its quota for 17 months as it seeks ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on From the Oh Canada Department
Wednesday, November 18th, 2015
This is an excellent article by Greg Ip at the WSJ which compares Japan and China and argues that without proper policy prescriptions China faces the same deflationary sinkhole that has gripped Japan for a generation.
Via the WSJ:
By
GREG IP
Nov. 18, 2015 12:25 p.m. ET
Donald Trump, if elected, says he’ll brand ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on China as the New Japan
Wednesday, November 18th, 2015
This is another story forwarded by my friend and former colleague Steve Liddy. It recounts the travails of a Danish mortgage lender. In Steve's cooments he refers to a story which I sent last night .
Via Bloomberg:
Veritas HY deal tabled (8:29 'Risk Off?) and Danish Securitized 3y downsized, in an ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Risk Aversion
Wednesday, November 18th, 2015
Via Bloomberg:
Target Corp. and Wal-Mart Stores Inc. both saw a big slowdown in online sales growth last quarter, fueling concern that the brick-and-mortar chains aren’t transitioning fast enough to e-commerce.
Target’s Internet sales grew 20 percent third quarter, missing the 30 percent gain it expected, the retailer said on Wednesday. The ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on On Line Sales Growth Slows at Target and Walmart
Wednesday, November 18th, 2015
Via Chris Low at FTN Financial:
The key headlines (from Bloomberg News):
*DUDLEY SAYS HE LOOKS FORWARD TO DAY WHEN FED CAN RAISE RATES
*DUDLEY SAYS LIFTOFF WILL SIGNAL FED'S CONFIDENCE IN ECONOMY
*MESTER SAYS ECONOMY CAN HANDLE A 25 BASIS POINT MOVE
*LACKER SAYS STRONG CONSUMER SPENDING WARRANTS RATE HIKE
*LOCKHART: HE'S PREPARED TO TAKE ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Fedspeak