Archive for November, 2015

Regarding Share Buybacks

Sunday, November 22nd, 2015

Maybe the left has a point on this one. I was astounded when I read in this article that corporate America had repurchased $572 billion of shares in the first none months of the year. Some of that is the tax code favoring debt, some of it is virtually zero ...

Venezuela With Confused Commentary on Oil Prices

Sunday, November 22nd, 2015

Venezuela's OPEC Minister offered some confusing commentary on the price of oil. On the one hand he sees oil plunging into the $20s if Opec fails to act. Against that background he some how sees a $88 equilibrium price for the challenged commodity. Via Bloomberg: OPEC member seeks `equilibrium price' of $88 ...

Changing Environment

Sunday, November 22nd, 2015

Via Bloomberg: Years of low interest rates have sparked an intense search for yield, with many investors seeking heftier returns in riskier corners of financial markets. So-called yield plays, including real estate investment trusts (Reits), master limited partnerships (MLPs), some initial public offerings, leveraged loans, and the bottom tier of the corporate ...

Crunch Time in the Oil Patch

Friday, November 20th, 2015

Via the WSJ: By Bradley Olson And Erin Ailworth Nov. 20, 2015 7:42 p.m. ET 1 COMMENTS The ingenuity and easy money that allowed American oil companies to keep pumping through a year-long price crash appear to be petering out as U.S. crude slides toward $40 a barrel. U.S. companies have stunned global rivals by continuing ...

Weekend Preview

Friday, November 20th, 2015

Via Robert Sinche at Amherst Pierpont Securities: CHINA: Note that Markit will no longer produce/release a preliminary PMI for China. The data will be released on the night of Nov 30 EST about 45 minutes after the official PMI releases. HONG KONG: The BBerg consensus expects the Headline CPI for October will ...

Imagine a Hard Landing

Friday, November 20th, 2015

Via Bloomberg: China's slowdown is already playing out across the world, dragging down commodity prices and weighing on trade partners. And that's while the economy is still growing at about 7 percent. So imagine what happens in a hard-landing scenario. The crew at Oxford Economics have done just that in a new report ...

Treasury Market Update

Friday, November 20th, 2015

One dealer notes that the the 2 year is trading at 91 basis points and the last time it traded there was back on Nov 8. At that time the 5 year note traded at 1.74 versus 1.67 currently. He notes also that it was a very busy week with ...

Draghi Comments

Friday, November 20th, 2015

Via the WSJ: By Brian Blackstone And Todd Buell Updated Nov. 20, 2015 5:43 a.m. ET   FRANKFURT—The European Central Bank is prepared to deploy its full range of stimulus measures to fight low inflation, ECB President Mario Draghi said on Friday, suggesting that additional easy money policies are a strong possibility at ...

FX

Friday, November 20th, 2015

Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman: Draghi Speaks, Dollar Firms - Draghi escalated his rhetoric regarding future ECB action; recall that in his tenure, Draghi has more often than not surprised on the dovish side - A collateral development from the widening policy divergence has been a sharp increase in the ...

Overnight

Friday, November 20th, 2015

Dealers report central banks selling 2s and 3s. Real money clients in Japan bought 5s while bank portfolios in Asia sold 5s. The yield curve continues to flatten. The 5s 10s spread is 56.7 versus 58.4 twenty four hours ago. Similarly , 5s 30s has narrowed to 132.6 from 134.3. The ...