Archive for November, 2015

More FX

Thursday, November 26th, 2015

Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman: The Table is Set, the Dollar Consolidates - The US dollar remains firm, even if it has eased from its seven-month high against the euro and five-year high against the Swiss franc recorded yesterday - The immediate focus is on the ECB The Reserve Bank of Australia ...

Early FX

Thursday, November 26th, 2015

Via Kit Juckes at SocGen: <http://www.sgmarkets.com/r/?id=hf36f507,14f56b39,14f56b3a&p1=136122&p2=9a42de9d74db4436415c70e2470db1d6> “He who exercises no forethought but makes light of his opponents is sure to be captured by them” The quote's from Sun Tzu's The Art of War and while I don't think for a second that Mario Draghi is anyone's opponent, he is regularly under-estimated. ‘Whatever ...

Gradualism Revisited

Wednesday, November 25th, 2015

Yesterday I posted this Bloomberg article about discerning the gradual path the FOMC may follow as it begins to hike rates. A reader of that post linked to a Ben Bernanke speech in 2004 in which he expounds on the role of gradualism in FOMC policy making. It is a ...

Repairing Repo

Wednesday, November 25th, 2015

I had planned not to blog until Monday but found this interesting story on attempts to repair the repo market. Via the FT: US bond dealers and investors have been urging policymakers to address dislocations within fixed income markets in private meetings this month. Focus has centred on the primary market for short-term ...

Happy Thanksgiving

Wednesday, November 25th, 2015

Blogging will resume Monday November 30th. I wish everyone who follows this blog a happy and joy filled Thanksgiving.

On Gradualism

Tuesday, November 24th, 2015

This Bloomberg article on gradualism and Fedspeak is quite unique. In thirty five years of reading analysis of the Fed I do not believe I have ever come across quotes from a linguistics professor and an etymology of a word. You learn something new each day. Via Bloomberg: Yellen's contribution: `gradual' doesn't ...

Consumer Confidence

Tuesday, November 24th, 2015

Via Stephen Stanley at Amherst Pierpont Securities: The Conference Board measure of consumer confidence took a tumble in November, falling to 90.4, the worst performance in over a year.  The drop is especially surprising since other gauges of household attitudes that had dipped in the wake of the August/September hiccup in ...

Morning Data Review

Tuesday, November 24th, 2015

Via Millan Mulraine at TDSecurities: TD SECURITIES DATAFLASH                    US: Goods Deficit Narrows, Q3 GDP Revised Higher ·         The goods deficit narrowed to $58.4B in October, following the upwardly revised $59.1B print in September. ·         The narrowing in the deficit bettered the market consensus, and it suggests that the external sector may be stabilizing. ·         The ...

Five Year Note Auction

Tuesday, November 24th, 2015

Via Ian Lyngen at CRT Capital: We are cautiously optimistic about the takedown of this afternoon's 5-year auction even though the sector has historically seen mixed receptions and the proximity to the holiday weekend could limit aggressive bidding.  Potential today is for a modest stop-through. Foreign demand has been strong for ...

FX

Tuesday, November 24th, 2015

Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman: Dollar Softens, Consolidation Phase Continues - Although the speculative market seems stretched short the euro, bearish sentiment prevails - German Q3 GDP was confirmed at 0.3% amid concern that the Germany economy was hitting a soft patch - Japan's preliminary manufacturing PMI rose to the highest level ...