Archive for November, 2015

Treasuries to Remain Structurally Cheap

Friday, November 6th, 2015

This is another in a tsunami of stories on the recent plunge in swap spreads. Strategists at JPMorgan are suggesting that structural changes in the market will leave Treasuries trading cheap to swaps. That does not sound like such a swell deal for taxpayers. Maybe the Treasury could start to pay ...

Labor Analysis

Friday, November 6th, 2015

Via TDSecurities: TD SECURITIES DATAFLASH US:  Labor Market Flashes Green for the Fed to Hike in December *        The US economy added jobs at a robust 271K pace in October. This is well ahead of the market consensus for a more modest 185K gain and it marks the fastest pace ...

Treasury Update

Friday, November 6th, 2015

Treasury curve flattening significantly. Just prior to data 5s 10s was 59.6 and sits currently at 56.1. The 5s 30s spread has moved to 131.2 from 135.8.The 10s 30s spread has narrowed to 74.6 from 76.2.The 5 year note is being taken to the woodshed. The 2s 5s spread has ...

Credit Musings

Friday, November 6th, 2015

Via Bob Elson at Bloomberg: CREDIT MORNING CALL: At Least 1 Still to Price After HAL/Shell 2015-11-06 11:46:48.788 GMT By Robert Elson (Bloomberg) -- HAL is finally in the rear-view mirror, Bloomberg’s Robert Elson writes. The real suprise yesterday was Shell’s $5b 5-part deal; brought the day to $15.85b and the week to $32.85b. * Last word on ...

Rumour

Friday, November 6th, 2015

It is a London based rumour so I spelled it the way they do. Anyway one trader in an overnight note reports a rumor that Rumours are circulating overnight that a large macro hedge fund has released a block of staff in London and Geneva which has stoked speculation that yesterday's ...

Corporate Bond Trading Yesterday

Friday, November 6th, 2015

Via Bloomberg: IG CREDIT: Lower Volume, Mixed Spreads as Issuance Surges 2015-11-06 10:37:04.807 GMT By Robert Elson (Bloomberg) -- Secondary IG trading ended with a Trace count of $13.7b vs $17.1b Wednesday, $16.6b the previous Thursday. 10-DMA $15.9b; 10-Thursday moving avg $15.1b. * 144a trading added $2.9b of IG volume vs $3.6b on Wednesday, $3.6b last Thursday * The ...

FX

Friday, November 6th, 2015

Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman: Dollar Firmer Ahead of Jobs Report - The US dollar is going into the monthly jobs report with a bid.   - Fed officials indicated that a rate hike was likely next month unless the economy disappointed; that’s not a high bar for the October jobs ...

Eclectic Stuff

Friday, November 6th, 2015

Via Kit Juckes at SocGen: <http://www.sgmarkets.com/r/?id=hf0dd539,14b3d967,14b3d968&p1=136122&p2=1c4568db3dd3ffb3667ca79304820e49> Link to the FX weekly is above. I wrote a short editorial that could easily be redundant by 13:32pm but the rest of it is more interesting. Last moth's 'surprise' form the payroll data was within one standard deviation of the recent average, which makes it ...

Merger

Friday, November 6th, 2015

Via Bloomberg: BFW 11/06 10:46 MORE: Tullett Prebon Confirms It Is in Talks With ICAP RNS 11/06 10:22 Tullett Prebon Plc TLPR Statement re. Press Comment BN 11/06 10:25 *TULLETT PREBON: DEAL TO INVOLVE NEW SHRS ISSUE AS CONSIDERATION BN 11/06 10:24 *TULLETT PREBON: DEAL TO INVOLVE TULLETT ISSUING NEW SHRS BN 11/06 10:24 *TULLETT ...

Cautionary Note on the Economy

Thursday, November 5th, 2015

I can recall watching Jim Paulsen of Wells Fargo at the worst moments of the crisis and he was always mind numbingly bullish. Stocks were cratering all around him and he was celebrating the declines as manna from heaven as the carnage was a buying opportunity. I guess he did ...