Archive for November, 2015

Eurozone GDP

Friday, November 13th, 2015

Via WSJ: By Paul Hannon, William Horobin and Nina Adam Updated Nov. 13, 2015 5:08 a.m. ET The eurozone economy slowed in the three months to September as exports to large developing economies weakened, a development that makes it more likely the European Central Bank will expand its stimulus programs in December. The slowdown was ...

Lonely Bear on the Frozen Tundra

Friday, November 13th, 2015

Albert Edwards is a perma bear  on equities who writes interesting and provocative research pieces for SocGen. Here is his latest piece which discusses the overabundance of corporate debt as well as a coming squeeze on profits as wages rise.

Early FX

Friday, November 13th, 2015

Via Kit Juckes at SocGen: <http://www.sgmarkets.com/r/?id=hf1e368f,14cdcc4b,14cdcc4c&p1=136122&p2=3a26b9838dced835a401dfd7671fbbb0> Good Morning, Happy Friday the 13th. Oil and industrial metals are the ugly-looking bits of the world, leaving Asian equities in a slightly nervous state which isn't really the way to end the week. We've had our first look at Q3 GDP data in France and ...

Things That Could Derail Economy in 2016

Thursday, November 12th, 2015

Via Luke Kawa at Bloomberg: Credit Suisse has published its 2016 Global Outlook, in which economists and strategists offer their favorite trades and base-case view for economic activity around the world, as well as possible developments that could derail their prophesied path from being realized. The title—"The Fed Awakens"—would seem to imply that ...

Long Bond Result

Thursday, November 12th, 2015

Via Ian Lyngen at CRT Capital: *** The auction was well-received with a 1.5 bp stop-through and non-dealer bidding at 70.5% vs. 62% norm *** * 30-year auction stops at 3.070% vs. a 3.085% 1-pm bid WI. * Dealers were awarded 29.6% vs. 38% average of last four 30-year Refundings. * Indirects get 60.3% ...

Thirty Year Bond Auction

Thursday, November 12th, 2015

Via Ian Lngen at CRT Capital: We are apprehensive on the outlook for this afternoon's long-bond Refunding auction and anticipate more of a concession - either outright or on the curve -- will be needed to take it down without a tail, leaving a tailed auction as the most likely outcome. ...

Coal in the Stocking

Thursday, November 12th, 2015

This one is personal as I owned (past tense) some Macy stock and got clobbered yesterday. Via the NYTimes: When Macy’s, a store closely associated with Christmas, says there is trouble brewing ahead of the holidays, it is enough to send the world of shopping into a tailspin. The retailer of “Miracle on ...

Goldman Sachs on Inflation

Thursday, November 12th, 2015

Via Bloomberg: Bank projects 10-year break-even rate will increase to 2% Implied inflation rate may rise amid stabilizing crude prices Bond traders should bet that the Federal Reserve will meet its objectives for quicker inflation, say analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Sliding energy prices and slowing global economic growth have weighed down a ...

High Allocation to Corporates by Money Managers

Thursday, November 12th, 2015

Via Robert Elson at Bloomberg: CREDIT MORNING CALL: Allocations Near Record High: Deals on Way 2015-11-12 12:30:48.146 GMT By Robert Elson (Bloomberg) -- Client allocations to corporate bonds rose to 35.3% this week, according to Stone McCarthy Portfolio Manager Survey; highest level ever was 35.4% seen March 4, 2014, Bloomberg’s Robert Elson writes. * Hard to know if ...

FX

Thursday, November 12th, 2015

Via Marc Chandler at SocGen: Dollar Firms, Strong Jobs Lift Aussie, Awaiting Fed-Speak - Draghi's comments to the European Parliament are similarly dovish in tone to the October post-ECB press conference - Japanese machinery orders rose 7.5% in September, more than twice the Bloomberg consensus estimate - The Australian dollar is easily the best ...