Archive for November, 2015

IS Consumer Spending Better Than Reported?

Saturday, November 14th, 2015

Via Barron's : Why Consumer Spending Is Better Than Reported The disappointing October retail sales report tells only part of the story. By Gene Epstein November 14, 2015 Contrary to outward appearances, consumers put in a respectable showing at the stores in October, based on retail-sales data released Friday. The headline figure showed a mere 0.1% increase, ...

IMF Says China Currency Should be in SDR Basket

Saturday, November 14th, 2015

Via Bloomberg: The International Monetary Fund's staff has recommended that China's renminbi join the elite basket of currencies used to value its own de-facto currency in a major vote of confidence in China's economic reforms and its efforts to establish the renminbi as an international reserve currency. In a statement, Christine Lagarde, ...

Terror Link

Saturday, November 14th, 2015

Bloomberg posted a story on their website about the arrest of a Montenegrin man in Bavaria last week who authorities now believe is linked to the savage attacks in France yesterday. Via Bloomberg: 51-year-old Montenegrin had cache of weapons hidden in car German soccer team spend night in stadium after friendly game German police ...

Data Review

Friday, November 13th, 2015

Via Stephen Stanley at Amherst Pierpont Securities: The retail inventories data for September came in considerably higher than BEA statisticians had assumed in their preliminary Q3 GDP estimate.  This adjustment, coupled with a similar upward revision to September wholesale inventories earlier this week, implies a sizable upward bump to Q3 GDP.  ...

Another Liquidity Pool Drying Up

Friday, November 13th, 2015

I have published numerous articles here on the evaporation of liquidity in both the corporate bond market and the Treasury market. Add a new giant market to that list as Bloomberg reports this morning on the impairment of liquidity on the Brobdingnagian FX market. Via Bloomberg: Candice Zachariahs candyzach7 Anchalee Worrachate worrachate Lananh Nguyen LananhTNguyen November 12, 2015 ...

Dealer Positions in Corporates

Friday, November 13th, 2015

Via Bloomberg: IG CREDIT: Corporate Bond Dealer Positions Rise, Long Bonds Led 2015-11-13 11:48:49.186 GMT By Robert Elson (Bloomberg) -- Dealer positions in corporate bonds rose $8.6b to $15.1b as of Nov. 4, vs $6.5b, a new low for the series Fed began in April 2013; $45.9b, seen March 2014, is the high. * Investment grade positions: * ...

FX

Friday, November 13th, 2015

Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman: Nothing to Fear from Friday the Thirteenth   - As a whole, the eurozone grew 0.3% in Q3, slightly less than the 0.4% seen in Q2 - Some observers will play up what is wrongly called a technical definition of a recession regarding the Q2 ...

Anecdotal Evidence Suggests Robust Corporate Bond Issuance to Continue

Friday, November 13th, 2015

Over the 36 years I have followed fixed income markets I have come across many anecdotal data points which help us in arranging the pieces of the puzzle we try and solve each and every day. Here is one which I have never heard of previously. The American Bankers Association has ...

Secondary Market Corporate Bond Trading Yesterday

Friday, November 13th, 2015

Via Bloomberg: ============================================================================= IG CREDIT: AZN Issues Topped Trading; IADB Set to Price 2015-11-13 11:02:17.7 GMT By Robert Elson (Bloomberg) -- Secondary IG trading ended with a Trace count of $14b vs $16.8b Tuesday, $13.7b last Thursday. 10-DMA $13.1b; 10-Thursday moving avg $15.2b. * 144a trading added $2.2b of IG volume vs $2.5b Tuesday, $2.9b last Thursday * The most ...

Overnight Flow

Friday, November 13th, 2015

Dealers report real money sellers of 2 year through 3 year sector as well as sellers of high quality spread product in that sector. In addition trading accounts looked to establish flatteners anchored by the Long Bond, predominately versus 5s.