Archive for October, 2015

Overnight Flow

Monday, October 26th, 2015

Dealers have reported dip buyers in the overnight session. I have heard of central banks buying in the 7 year through 10 year sector and other end users buying in the 3 year through 5 year sector. The curve has flattened from Friday closing levels. The 5s 10s spread has narrowed ...

Early FX

Monday, October 26th, 2015

Via Kit Juckes at SocGen: <http://www.sgmarkets.com/r/?id=heee7b66,148374ed,148374ee&p1=136122&p2=f2256e40c89c9a870f852fb6a647279f> Back from the other side of the world to a Eurosceptic win in Poland, an Antipodean RWC final, and a risk-happy market. The ECB hinted; the PBoC eased. Markets are hoping for the Fed to do nothing on Wednesday (as usual) and for the BOJ to ...

Declining Profits and Declining Sales

Sunday, October 25th, 2015

Via the WSJ: By Theo Francis and Kate Linebaugh Oct. 25, 2015 8:11 p.m. ET 7 COMMENTS Quarterly profits and revenue at big American companies are poised to decline for the first time since the recession, as some industrial firms warn of a pullback in spending. From railroads to manufacturers to energy producers, businesses say they ...

Weakening the Yuan

Sunday, October 25th, 2015

Via Bloomberg:   China’s yuan is forecast to face increased pressure to weaken after the central bank lowered interest rates for the sixth time in a year and cut reserve requirements for lenders. The moves “will keep the yuan under downward pressure, drive Chinese money-market rates lower, but have a largely a muted ...

Decision Time for Fed

Saturday, October 24th, 2015

Via Bloomberg: Bond investors looking to the Federal Reserve next week for hints about when it will be ready to lift interest rates for the first time since 2006 may be missing a bigger question. With policy makers seemingly making little progress on their path to raising rates, they’re also delaying resolving ...

Huge Inflow into High Yield Bond Funds

Thursday, October 22nd, 2015

Via the FT: High-yield bond funds see biggest inflows since '11 2 minutes ago Investors raced back into higher-yielding junk bond funds at the fastest pace in four years, following a broad rally in both equity and fixed income markets as concern the Federal Reserve will tighten policy this year faded. US mutual and ...

Draining the Bonus Pool at Barclay’s

Thursday, October 22nd, 2015

The chairman and acting CEO of UK's Barclay's Bank has attacked the bonus culture which dominates at trading firms and investment banks. I guess he is not planning on making any new hires in the near term. Via the FT: The chairman of Barclays has attacked the bonus system for investment bankers, ...

overnight Data Preview

Thursday, October 22nd, 2015

Via Robert Sinche at Amherst Pierpont Securities: CHINA: There are signs that the widespread weakening of property prices is moderating. In August, 61 cities reported YOY price declines while as recently as March all 70 cities in the survey were reporting declines. S. KOREA: The BBerg consensus expects that Real GDP growth ...

TIPS Result

Thursday, October 22nd, 2015

Via CRT Capital: *** The 30-year TIPS auction was strong with non-dealer bidding at 78.3% vs. 65.9% norm (highest non-dealer allocation on record) and a stop-through of 1 bp *** * 30-year TIPS auction stops at 1.200% vs. a 1.210% 1-pm bid WI. * Dealers were awarded 21.7% vs. 33% average of last ...

Regarding the Debt Ceiling

Thursday, October 22nd, 2015

Via Stephen Stanley at Amherst Pierpont Securities: The Treasury this morning announced that it is postponing the 2-year note auction that was scheduled for October 27 pending a resolution to the debt ceiling impasse.  5-year and 7-year note auctions will proceed next week as scheduled.  Treasury intends to announce next week’s ...