Archive for October, 2015

Trader Sentiment

Friday, October 2nd, 2015

David Ader and Ian Lyngen at CRT Capital conduct a survey each month of trader survey and how participants might react to the labor report. Here is the result from this month's survey: NFP Survey Results -- The results of our October NFP survey (for the September data) shows a distinctly ...

What to Watch Today

Friday, October 2nd, 2015

Via Bloomberg: WHAT TO WATCH: * (All times New York) * Economic Data * 8:30am: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, Sept., est. 201k (prior 173k) * Change in Private Payrolls, Sept., est. 198k (prior 140k) * Change in Mfg Payrolls, Sept., est 0 (prior -17k) * Unemployment Rate, Sept., est. 5.1% (prior 5.1%) * Avg Hourly Earnings m/m, Sept., est. 0.2% ...

FX

Friday, October 2nd, 2015

Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman: Dollar Firmer Ahead of Jobs Report - Consensus expectations for non-farm payrolls today is at 201K, according to the Bloomberg survey - Household spending in Japan came in much higher than expected in August - The dollar bloc continues to do well, with the Australian dollar helped ...

Overnight Data Preview

Thursday, October 1st, 2015

Via Robert Sinche at Amherst Pierpont Securities: The day after Manufacturing PMIs and the day of the US Employment report are both usually quiet…and they line up this month. AUSTRALIA: Retail Sales rose for 14 straight months before a modest -0.1% drop in July, with August data due tonight. One of the ...

Swap Spreads

Thursday, October 1st, 2015

Via TDSecurities: Swap Spreads: A Perfect Storm §  We attribute the recent tightening in spreads to a number of factors: central bank selling of Treasuries, bloated dealer balance sheets into quarter end, heavy corporate issuance, positioning stop-outs and likely hedging needs from variable annuities due to the underperformance in equities. These factors ...

Data Analysis

Thursday, October 1st, 2015

Via Stephen Stanley at Amherst Pierpont Securities: The 10:00 data round emphasizes the diverging fortunes of various sectors of the U.S. economy.  The manufacturing sector remains exposed to the global situation, with both the stronger dollar and cooling demand in China and other places dampening activity for U.S. factories.  The September ...

New Issues Pricing Today

Thursday, October 1st, 2015

Via Bloomberg: IG CREDIT: List of New Issues Expected to Price in U.S. Today 2015-10-01 14:01:00.0 GMT By Allan Lopez (Bloomberg) -- List of new issues expected to price today: * Enbridge Energy Partners $benchmark Baa3/BBB * 5Y, 10Y, 30Y * IPT: 5Y 62.5 5s/10s curve (+312.5 area), 10Y +375 area, 30Y 75 10s/30s curve (+450 area) * Books: ...

Thursday Morning Musings

Thursday, October 1st, 2015

Why is the bond market so well bid today? I think one factor is the propinquity of the still investment grade 10 year note to 2.00 percent and the magnetic pull of that level. China has (allegedly) been a big seller of Treasuries. They are on holiday ergo sell pressure from that ...

Butterflys are Free

Thursday, October 1st, 2015

I think that was a movie title in the 70s that featured Goldie Hawn. In this instance though I am referring to the 5s 10s 30s butterfly which is not cheap. I just clocked it a couple of minutes ago at a cycle rich -14.3. I marked prices at 430AM ...

Corporate Bonds

Thursday, October 1st, 2015

This is a recap of yesterday's new issue market with the  full pricing levels for the HP mega deal. Via Bloomberg: By Lisa Loray (Bloomberg) -- $19.85b priced from 2 issuers yesterday; weekly volume to $22.5b, Sept. to $120.06b and YTD to $1.21t. * Volume sans SAS: day $14.6b, week $16.3b, Sept. $108.96b, YTD $1.05t * $14.6b ...