Archive for October, 2015

What to Watch Next Week

Saturday, October 3rd, 2015

Via the FT: Next week: US earnings, Nobel Prizes & Fed mins   After this week ended with a disappointing US jobs report for September, investors will turn their attention next week to the health of corporate America as third quarter-earnings season kicks off. Here's a preview of what to expect over the next ...

Boehner and the Debt Ceiling

Saturday, October 3rd, 2015

Via WSJ: By Kristina Peterson and Nick Timiraos Oct. 2, 2015 7:03 p.m. ET WASHINGTON—A new early November deadline puts fresh pressure on House Speaker John Boehner to spend his last month in Congress wrangling fellow Republicans to do something they loathe: raising the debt ceiling. Late Thursday, the Treasury Department said the federal ...

Corporate Bond Market Angst

Friday, October 2nd, 2015

This Bloomberg article describes the angst of some corporate bond market investors who worry that a slowing economy might sully credit quality. They should speak to their brethren in the equity market as the huge rally off the lows in that market indicates a level of cognitive dissonance which needs ...

Labor Data Analysis

Friday, October 2nd, 2015

Via Millan Mulraine at TDSecurities: US: Labor Market Wheels Beginning to Wobble ·         The US economy added a very meagre 142K jobs in September, marking the slowing pace of jobs growth since March. This comes on the heels of the equally disappointing 136K gain in August. ·         Net revisions were particularly weak at ...

Corporate Bonds

Friday, October 2nd, 2015

I just spoke with a corporate market participant who said flows in that market are rather light. Spreads are wider. The Index is 4 wider on the day and 8 wider on week. On the day bank and finance paper is 3basis points to 5 basis points wider and industrials ...

Miscellaneous Morning Musings

Friday, October 2nd, 2015

I just spoke with a swaps market maker and he is only seeing position squaring at his shop. Those lucky enough to have been long are taking profits and those who committed the transgression of being short are taking their lumps. The swap market experienced a huge shakeout the other ...

Curvology: Belly En Fuego

Friday, October 2nd, 2015

The 2s 5s 10s spread which I noted was 3.6 before data is now 0.9. The 5s 10s 30s spread has moved from -13.8 to -15.7. The Long Bond has financial herpes with 10s 30s moving to 84.3 from 81.1 and 5s 30s now at 152.9 versus 148.4.

Participation Rate

Friday, October 2nd, 2015

Via BLS: The civilian labor force participation rate declined to 62.4 percent in September; the rate had been 62.6 percent for the prior 3 months. The employment-population ratio edged down to 59.2 percent in September, after showing little movement for the first 8 months of the year. (See table A-1.)

Curvology

Friday, October 2nd, 2015

I just marked levels on various butterflys and spreads so I can clock any employment report reaction. The 2s 5s 10s spread continues to richen and I just clocked it at 3.6 basis points. In my status as elder statesman/retired guy I do not sit here any more and observe ...

Bernanke Memoir

Friday, October 2nd, 2015

For those who wish to relive the heady days of 2007 through 2009 when the world financial system suffered through a near death experience former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has written a memoir which will reach bookstores and Amazon on Monday. Here is a link to Amazon.