Archive for August, 2015
Monday, August 24th, 2015
Treasury paper has retreated from its best levels. One dealer reports that the 10 year traded as low as 1.973 and I observed 5s at 1.375.
In Asia dealers report fast money buying 10s. Bank portfolios sold 5s. Fast money and real money sold the back end but insurance company buying ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Treasury Flows
Monday, August 24th, 2015
Via the FT:
COMMENT"Black Monday" - what the analysts are saying
With stock markets across the world sagging under a black cloud or fears about China's ability to power world growth, the world's financial experts are struggling to find silver linings.
Here is a selection of Monday's commentary, Naomi Rovnick writes.
Kit Juckes, of ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Analytical Smorgasbord
Monday, August 24th, 2015
Via Kit Juckes at SocGen:
<http://www.sgresearch.com/r/?id=he768e4e,13c7155f,13c71560&p1=136122&p2=b7e70da9e864f42ee807272d0d1e78ba>
Maybe it's just 'cos it's a Monday and yet again, we're replaying Friday's move rather than looking forward. But I doubt it....
Markets are afraid of further economic weakness in China, further pain in global commodity markets and uncertain about Fed and PBoC policy - what they ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Early FX
Monday, August 24th, 2015
I just received this from a fully paid up subscriber domiciled across the pond:
Eurozone 5y5y Inflation Forward Rates drop to 1.621%. Lowest Level in 6 months. Draghi’s Favourite Measure Of Inflation Expectations.
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Forward Inflation
Sunday, August 23rd, 2015
Via Lawrence Summers in the FT:
Will the Federal Reserve’s September meeting see US interest rates go up for the first time since 2006? Officials have held out the prospect that it might, and have suggested that — barring major unforeseen developments — rates will probably be increased by the end ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Larry Summers Says Rate Hike “Serious Error”
Sunday, August 23rd, 2015
Via Barron's:
By
JOHN STEELE GORDON
Aug. 22, 2015 3:11 a.m. ET
Mathematicians often deal in abstractions that are quite beyond the ken of non-mathematicians. For instance, in 1637, the Frenchman Pierre de Fermat conjectured that there is no whole-number solution for the equation An + Bn = Cn where N is greater than ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Fibonacci
Sunday, August 23rd, 2015
Persian Gulf equity markets tumbled in weekend trading with some down as much as 7 percent. The FT article appended here suggests that is a bad sign for risk as we prepare for opening of Asian markets. I have never heard of any correlation between Persian Gulf markets and any ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Precursor?
Sunday, August 23rd, 2015
Via the WSJ:
By
LINGLING WEI
Updated Aug. 23, 2015 6:38 a.m. ET
BEIJING—The People’s Bank of China is preparing to flood the country’s banking system with new liquidity to boost lending, according to officials and advisers to the central bank, as a weaker currency could spur more funds leaving Chinese shores.
The step—which involves ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on China Set to Cut Reserve Requirements (Again)
Friday, August 21st, 2015
Via a fully paid up subscriber who is a market maker in plain vanilla swaps:
Swaps Update
Lots of questions surrounding the swap spread narrowing move in
the risk off rally. Positioning is long and spreads respond
more to flows than fundamentals. I think the opportunity
here lies not in initiating wideners in the belly ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Swap Market Commentary (Excellent Read)
Friday, August 21st, 2015
Via Bloomberg:
Fed Won’t Be Able to Control Fed Funds With Precision: Barclays
2015-08-21 14:15:57.52 GMT
By Alexandra Harris
(Bloomberg) -- While the Fed has managed the effective fed
funds rate within 0.5bp of FOMC’s target, there is
“considerable uncertainty” where funds will trade within
RRP/IOER band after liftoff, Barclays strategists Joseph Abate
writes in weekly note.
* Barclays ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Federal Funds Rate When Fed Tightens