Archive for August, 2015

Credit Spreads

Monday, August 24th, 2015

Via Merrill Lynch Research: Situation Room The gap is closed – long live the gap 24 August 2015 Key takeaways With the underperformance in equities the gap between HG cash bond spreads and equity vol - has closed. The gap between equity vol and the vol of equity vol is the next gap that has to ...

Very Heavy Volume in Treasury Market

Monday, August 24th, 2015

Via an excerpt from the closing note of Ian Lyngen at CRT Capital Activity in the Treasury market was extremely high with cash trading at 240% of the 10-day moving-average for the most active session since Oct 2014 - during the 'flash-crash' episode.  The belly led the rally so we weren't ...

Lockhart Comments

Monday, August 24th, 2015

Via Bloomberg: Fed’s Lockhart Sticks With 2015 Liftoff; Mum on Mkt Volatility 2015-08-24 19:55:00.12 GMT By Vivien Lou Chen (Bloomberg) -- Atlanta Fed Pres. Dennis Lockhart, sticking with his view that 1st rate increase will occur “sometime this yr,” says stronger USD, weaker CNY and decline in oil prices are “complicating factors” for predicting pace of growth. * ...

Overnight Data Preview

Monday, August 24th, 2015

Via Robert Sinche at Amherst Pierpont Securities: CHINA: Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index for July, although the solid gains in recent months have not materialized into stronger growth. HONG KONG: The BBerg consensus expects Exports to have fallen -5.1% YOY in July, which is a slump not as bad as China but ...

Market Technicals

Monday, August 24th, 2015

I regularly post the FX musings of Marc Chandler of Brown Brothers. I have never received this before but it is an excellent piece on market technicals in the various markets we trade. Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers: Technical Outlook For Turbulent Markets It’s a difficult environment for the dollar, stocks and ...

Monday Morning Miscellany

Monday, August 24th, 2015

Dealers reporting active two way flow in the 2 year through 7 year sector as well as big buying of 10 year sector. Central banks have been better buyers of off the run 2 year paper. Corporate bond spreads have widened but one portfolio manager noted that there is no panic ...

Excellent Market Commentary

Monday, August 24th, 2015

Via an anonymous swap market trader who writes consistently great analysis: Today at 9:02 AM     Monday morning cross markets meeting was all about widening in spreads, outflows from funds and a very uneasy feeling about liquidity.  Listening to every spread product describe moves of 5 to 35 wider and then ...

Crisis Redux

Monday, August 24th, 2015

Several people with whom I have conversed this morning have made comparisons to the price action in 2008 when the financial system had its near death experience. The difference is that this time (so far) the money markets are not melting. In 2008 the system was overleveraged and counterparties would ...

FX

Monday, August 24th, 2015

Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman:  In Exaggerations Lie Investment Opportunities - The key to stabilizing the markets may not lie with data; the most important missing piece is the intent of policy makers - That is why the more important even this week (August 29) may be the Fed's Vice Chairman's ...

Corporate Bonds

Monday, August 24th, 2015

Via Bloomberg: IG CREDIT: Volume Lower; Spreads Again Make New Wides for 2015 2015-08-24 09:52:07.103 GMT By Robert Elson (Bloomberg) -- Secondary IG trading ended with a Trace count of $7.3b Friday vs $12.6b Thursday, $8.2b the previous Friday. 10-DMA $11.9b; 10-Friday moving avg $9.8b, the lowest since October. * 144a trading added $1.3b of IG volume Friday ...