Archive for August, 2015

ISM Analysis

Monday, August 3rd, 2015

Via Millan Mulraine at TDSecurities: The ISM manufacturing index slipped unexpectedly in July, falling to 52.7 from 53.5. This was a weaker performance than the market consensus for an unchanged print, and it suggests that the economic recovery is leaking momentum going into the second half of this year. The decline ...

FX

Monday, August 3rd, 2015

Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman: Drivers for the Week Ahead - The Bank of England enters a new era since the minutes will be published containing the vote itself; the quarterly inflation report will also be released - This week’s US jobs data will be exceptionally important given the uncertainty about ...

Easy Credit and Student Loans

Monday, August 3rd, 2015

Via the WSJ: By Josh Mitchell Aug. 2, 2015 2:03 p.m. ET 136 COMMENTS Imagine a scenario in which the federal government helps households pursue the American dream with ultra-loose credit, only to see prices skyrocket and families take on loads of debt they can’t repay. Yes, it sounds like the housing market of a ...

Corporate Bond Trading on Friday

Monday, August 3rd, 2015

Via Bloomberg: IG CREDIT: Client Flows Led Volume; Kookmin 5Y This Week 2015-08-03 10:13:23.710 GMT By Robert Elson (Bloomberg) -- Secondary IG trading ended with a Trace count of $12.2b Friday vs $14.4b Thursday, $9.8b the previous Friday. 10-DMA $13.7b; 10-Friday moving avg $10.9b. * 144a trading added $2.6b of IG volume Friday vs $2.4b on Thursday, $1.8b ...

Driverless Cars

Monday, August 3rd, 2015

I have been fascinated by the stories of innovation and automation which have made driving much safer. My own car has a rear window camera but I have not warmed up to it and still do not trust it and continue to turn around when I back up. Notwithstanding my ...

European PMIs

Monday, August 3rd, 2015

Via the FT: MarketsEurozone manufacturing sector stagnates in July Slow progress but it could have been so much worse. The Eurozone's manufacturing sector may have performed slightly better than initially believed in July but the overall picture is a further slowing of growth compared to June, as the Greek debt crisis took its ...

Overnight Flow

Monday, August 3rd, 2015

In early reports on overnight flows dealers report end users as well as fast money selling 3s through 5s and 7s through 10s. Central banks have bought 2 year notes (small) as the market declined. The yield curve is flatter overnight. The 5s 10s spread rests at 64.2 versus 65.2 at ...

Early FX Musings

Monday, August 3rd, 2015

Via Kit Juckes at SocGen: <http://www.sgresearch.com/r/?id=he569656,13932df3,13932df4&p1=136122&p2=e0223a86200937812ca288920e096daa> A downward revision to the Chinese ‘Caixin PMI' has given markets a risk averse mood to start the week. At 47.8 the index is at its lowest level since July 2013. Copper and oil price are lower, and equity prices likewise. Asian FX markets however, are ...

Hedge Fund Longs

Saturday, August 1st, 2015

A fully paid up subscriber who had an urge to write on the weekend pointed out that hedge funds have their largest long positions in the 10 year note contract since April 2013. At that time I was still plying my trade as a bond salesman and preparing for the ...

Biden Weighs Challenge to Hilary Clinton

Saturday, August 1st, 2015

Vice President Biden has been mute on the topic of a challenge to Hilary Clinton for the right to be the Democratic nominee in 2016. The New York Times reports that he and staff are in active discussion with potential donors and supporters on the possibility that he might seek ...