Archive for July, 2015

GDP NOW

Tuesday, July 7th, 2015

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta tracking model for GDP now predicts that Q2 GDP will register at 2.3 percent. Via FRB Atlanta: Latest forecast — July 7, 2015 The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2015 was 2.3 percent on July 7, ...

Debacle in China

Tuesday, July 7th, 2015

Via the FT: MarketsFrozen chaos hits China market: Shanghai down 8% 29 minutes ago More than 40 per cent of China's equity market is frozen. The rest is in free fall. Where traders can trade, equities are in a sharp downturns: the Shanghai Composite fell 8.2 per cent within 3 minutes, which would be ...

Overnight Data Preview

Tuesday, July 7th, 2015

Via Robert Sinche at Amherst Pierpont Securities: Russian President Putin hosts a 3-day BRICS Summit in Ufa. Let’s see…Brazil in recession…Russia in recession…India economy stable but slowing…China equities collapsing…this should be interesting. Japan PM Abe speaks at the Economist magazine Japan Summit, apparently to give details on the 3rd phase of Abenomics…the ...

Greek Headline

Tuesday, July 7th, 2015

Via Blomberg: Greek Govt Says Will Present ‘Common Ground’ for Deal Tomorrow 2015-07-07 17:24:24.882 GMT By Jenny Paris (Bloomberg) -- The Greek government plans to present Wednesday the “common ground” for a viable agreement with the country’s creditors, taking into account the result of the referendum, Greek political leaders’ positions and the creditors’ proposals, a Greek government official ...

Bund Technicals

Tuesday, July 7th, 2015

Via Robert Sinche at Amherst Pierpont Securities: The Bund market, again, appears to be setting the pace for global bond markets. Combination of Greece uncertainties, global equity weakness and lower oil prices seem to be coming together to push yields lower – it seems the key levels to watch are the ...

Treasury Market Agonies

Tuesday, July 7th, 2015

One trader notes that we are approaching 200 day moving average on 10s which is 2.156. Same trader reports that while TIPS breakevens have held up well recently they are softening today. That market maker has observed real money sellers of 10 year TIPS. Ten year TIPS breaks have cheapened 4 ...

No Greek Proposal on Table

Tuesday, July 7th, 2015

Via AP: The Latest: Greece has not presented new reform proposals to European creditors, say officials 2015-07-07 14:21:09.592 GMT The Latest: Greece has not presented new reform proposals to European creditors, say officials (Associated Press) -- BRUSSELS -- The latest on the Greek financial crisis (all times Brussels local): ------ 2:50 p.m. Three people familiar with discussions currently taking place ...

Treasury market Update

Tuesday, July 7th, 2015

The market has gapped and 5s have busted through the 1.50 level. One trader noted a story circulating to the effect that Greece showed up for the summit with no proposal and will not present one until tomorrow. In addition commodities are crashing and there is an abundance of angst ...

Three Year Auction Outlook

Tuesday, July 7th, 2015

Via Ian Lyngen at CRT Capital: We are optimistic about this afternoon's $24 bn 3-year auction and see the risk of a stop-through in light of the recent takedowns of new 3s, relatively good performance of the sector, and the Greek-related uncertainty.  On the other hand, the recent rally has prevented ...

Today’s Corporate List

Tuesday, July 7th, 2015

Via Bloomberg: IG CREDIT: List of New Issues Expected to Price in U.S. Today 2015-07-07 14:01:00.0 GMT By Allan Lopez (Bloomberg) -- 6 new issues expected to price today: * AIG $benchmark Baa1/A- * 10Y, 20Y, 30Y * IPT 10Y +165, 20Y +175, 30Y +190 (all area) * Books: BofAML, BNP, USB * CBS $500m Baa2/BBB * Long 10Y * IPT ...