Archive for July, 2015

FX

Thursday, July 9th, 2015

Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman: - We suspect that many misunderstand the incentive structure, and under-estimate the political will to ensure EMU remains irreversible - The FOMC minutes took on a cautious tone; the one surprise perhaps was the attention paid to developments abroad - The Bank of England meets but ...

Overnight Flow

Thursday, July 9th, 2015

Fast money sellers of 10s. Real money buys Long Bond (some of those players yen funded). Central banks buy 7s through 10s.

Credit Pipeline

Thursday, July 9th, 2015

Via Bloomberg: IG CREDIT PIPELINE: IFC to Price, CHTR/TWC Deal May Also Price 2015-07-09 09:45:56.450 GMT By Robert Elson (Bloomberg) -- Set to price today: * IFC Aaa/AAA, $2b 5Y, via managers C/CS/GS/TD; guidance MS +3 area * Charter (CHTR) Ba3/BB-, may issue today for Time Warner Cable (TWC) Baa2/BBB deal; May 29 - Charter reports up to $6b ...

Early Morning FX Musings

Thursday, July 9th, 2015

Via Kit Juckes at SocGen: )<http://www.sgresearch.com/r/?id=he234f47,134315b1,134315b2&p1=136122&p2=c51ee33f490b73b453337361d459c4aa> There's a tube strike in London and many traders will come in to find their discomfort magnified by the trades that worked on Monday-Wednesday going into reverse (at least temporarily). The US FOMC Minutes were not somewhere between ‘dovish' and ‘wishy-washy' (the view of SG Economics). ...

Eclectic Stuff

Thursday, July 9th, 2015

Via Merrill Lynch Research: Bad news is bad news (briefly). Following the release of the Minutes from June's FOMC meeting our rates strategists point out below that the market implied odds that the Fed begins hiking interest rates at their September 17th meeting are only around 1 in 5. That represents ...

Treasury Flows

Wednesday, July 8th, 2015

Dealers who are generous enough to share information with me reported light volumes today. Distilling what I have read clients were better sellers in the 5 year through 10 year bucket and better buyers of Long Bonds (that sector).

Barclay’s on Liquidity

Wednesday, July 8th, 2015

Via Bloomberg: Greater Herding, Dwindling Liquidity ‘Potent Cocktail’: Barclays 2015-07-08 19:22:04.240 GMT By Alexandra Harris (Bloomberg) -- Combination of “greater herding and diminishing liquidity is a potent cocktail which heightens tail- risks” in sovereign bond markets, Barclays strategists led by Rajiv Setia write in note. * Means risk management should focus on tail risks; VaR, Sharpe ratios are “increasingly ...

FOMC Minutes Analysis

Wednesday, July 8th, 2015

Chris Low of FTN Financial opines that the FOMC comments on Greece and China might have been throw away lines at the time in June but now that each is a full blown crisis a September rate hike looks far less likely. Via Chris Low at FTN Financial: Well, there it is. ...

Hilsenrath and Leubsdorf on Minutes

Wednesday, July 8th, 2015

Via the WSJ: By Jon Hilsenrath And Ben Leubsdorf Updated July 8, 2015 2:29 p.m. ET Worries about global turbulence and soft spots in the domestic economy weighed on Federal Reserve officials when they gathered at their June policy meeting, trepidations that could cause them to wait longer before raising short-term interest rates. Officials ...

Overnight Data Preview

Wednesday, July 8th, 2015

Via Robert Sinche at Amherst Pierpont Securities: CHINA: The BBerg consensus expects the CPI to creep back up to 1.3% YOY in June from a surprisingly low 1.2% in May. AUSTRALIA: The BBerg consensus expects the weak economy will push up the UR to 6.1% in June from a surprisingly low 6.0% ...