Archive for July, 2015

Merrill Lynch on Retail Sales

Friday, July 10th, 2015

Merrill Lynch is part of the gargantuan BankAmerica. That firm cuts across a very wide swath of American consumers and uses internal data from customers credit card spening to forecast retail sales. In a note this morning the firm reports disappointing retail slaes in June. Via BankAmerica Merrill Lynch: Disappointing June retail ...

FX

Friday, July 10th, 2015

Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman: - A Greek deal seems to be gaining momentum; but the real question still seems to hinge on debt relief - Norway CPI was surprisingly elevated, casting doubts about more easing by the Norges Bank - The UK trade deficit narrowed to the lowest level since ...

Secondary Market Corporate Bond Trading Yesterday

Friday, July 10th, 2015

Via Bloomberg: IG CREDIT: TWC 2042 Was Most Active; IADB Set to Price 2015-07-10 09:47:39.352 GMT By Robert Elson (Bloomberg) -- Secondary IG trading ended with a Trace count of $12.9b vs $12.7b Wednesday, $6.1b the previous Thursday, the lowest volume session since $1.9b on Jan. 2. * 10-DMA $11.9b; 10-Thursday moving avg $14.3b, the lowest since $14b ...

Risk On

Friday, July 10th, 2015

Here is all you need to know this morning about the giddy euphoria coursing through the markets. I watch Spain/US in 10 years to gain some sense of markets assessment of peripheral risk. The WSJ page I watch to clock that marks 10 year Bunds 28 ticks lower and 10 year ...

Greek Tragedy May Enter Denouement

Friday, July 10th, 2015

Via the WSJ: By GABRIELE STEINHAUSER July 10, 2015 5:24 a.m. ET 0 COMMENTS BRUSSELS—Greece’s creditor institutions could make an assessment on the country’s eligibility for new bailout on Friday, a eurozone official said, as a deadline to avoid a possible Greek financial meltdown draws near. The institutions that have been overseeing Greece’s bailouts—the European Commission, ...

Early Morning FX Musings

Friday, July 10th, 2015

Via Kit Juckes at SocGen: Today at 2:21 AM Good (slightly weird) morning. If my Friday morning head understands it right, the Greeks had a referendum in which they voted overwhelmingly to reject a set austerity proposals in return for some debt rollovers. Too much austerity and not enough debt relief, they ...

Client Flows in Asia

Thursday, July 9th, 2015

One dealer reporting in that flows are very heavy this evening in early trading in Asia. The Greek proposal has been viewed as close to the Eurogroup proposal and that is wounding the flight to quality bid. Dealers are feeling less than festive too as the refunding auctions are far ...

Eclectic Stuff

Thursday, July 9th, 2015

Via Merrill Lynch Research: Supply returns, drives wedge between stocks and bonds. Following strong intraday co-movement between long term interest rates and stocks for many days, today the pair decoupled mid-day with interest rates continuing to rise strongly even as the rally in equities faded. Behind the initial increase in yields ...

5s 30s Death Cross

Thursday, July 9th, 2015

Via my friend and former colleague Steve Liddy (with my apologies for the poor charts). 5s30s bottomed in mid-Septmber has held it's current rally since the March month end. Today, the 100d MA crosses above the 200d MA, which should be a bullish signal, and point to further rallying/steepening.

Thar She Blows

Thursday, July 9th, 2015

The "London Whale" a JPMorgan employee in London who took inordinate risk and lost over $6 billion learned today the UK authorities will drop their investigation of his actions. Via the FT: High quality global journalism requires investment. Please share this article with others using the link below, do not cut & ...