Archive for June, 2015
Monday, June 1st, 2015
Via Robert Sinche at Amherst Pierpont Securities:
AUSTRALIA: The BBerg consensus expects the RBA to leave the Cash Rate at the record low 2.0%. The consensus expects a 1Q Current Account deficit of $A10.8bn; the last time Australia enjoyed a current account surplus was 2Q 1975 (yep, that was 40 years ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Overnight Data Preview
Monday, June 1st, 2015
Bank America is forecasting a three year decline in house prices beginning in 2017.
Via Bloomberg:
Americans will face falling home prices in a matter of years as personal income gains fail to keep pace with the recovery from the financial crisis, according to a Bank of America Corp. analyst.Chris Flanagan predicted ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Another Slump in House Prices?
Monday, June 1st, 2015
Via Millan Mulraine at TDSecurities:
The better tone in the May ISM manufacturing sector report provided some much needed optimism that the US economic recovery may be heading back on track, contrasting with the weaker tone in the various regional manufacturing reports and the spending report earlier today. The relatively upbeat ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on ISM Analysis
Monday, June 1st, 2015
Via FTN Financial :
Personal consumption was unchanged in April, below the consensus for a 0.2% increase, with March consumption upwardly revised to 0.5% from 0.4%. Personal income rose 0.4%, slightly above expectations. Spending on services rose 0.2%, while spending on goods fell 0.5%, though taking March’s 0.2% upward revision into ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Savings and Spending Analysis
Monday, June 1st, 2015
Via Bloomberg:
WHAT TO WATCH:
* (All times New York)
* Economic Data
*
* 8:30am: Personal Income, April, est. 0.3% (prior 0%)
*
* Personal Spending, April, est. 0.2% (prior 0.4%)
* Inflation Adjusted Personal Spending, April (prior
0.3%)
* PCE Deflator m/m, April, est. 0.1% (prior 0.2%)
* PCE Deflator y/y, April, est. 0.2% (prior 0.3%)
* PCE Core m/m, ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on What to Watch for Today
Monday, June 1st, 2015
Via Bloomberg and my friend Steve Liddy:
Frugality of High Earners in U.S. Shows Long Shadow of Recession
2015-06-01 09:00:00.1 GMT
By Anna-Louise Jackson
(Bloomberg) -- The nearly rich aren’t spending nearly
enough, a trend that’s weighing on U.S. growth.
Six years after the worst recession since the 1930s,
Americans who earn $100,000 to $249,999 a year ...
Posted in Uncategorized | 2 Comments »
Monday, June 1st, 2015
Via Marc Chandler at Bloomberg:
Drivers for the Week Ahead
May was an eventful month, but June will be even more challenging for investors. Her are a few top level points to consider:
1. Talk of a US recession is exaggerated.
2. The eurozone's unemployment is more than twice the US level
3. As was ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on FX
Monday, June 1st, 2015
Via Bloomberg:
China Considers Doubling Its Local Bond-Swap Program
10:15 PM EDT
May 31, 2015
Chinese policy makers are considering plans to as much as double the size of a clean-up program for shaky local government finances, according to people familiar with the discussions.
In what would be the second stage of the program, a ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Fiscal Machinations in China
Monday, June 1st, 2015
It was a very quiet evening. Dealers report end user selling in 10s and money managers establishing flatteners in 5s 30s. Size in each instance was quite modest.
The curve has reversed some of the steepening which occurred Friday late. The 5s 10s and 5s 30s spreads are about a basis ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Overnight Flows
Monday, June 1st, 2015
Via the FT:
MarketsShanghai stocks rebound 4.7%, Shenzhen at new high
2 hours ago
URL
Twitter
Call it a pull back with Chinese characteristics. It's been a mere two sessions since China's benchmark stock index tumbled 6.5 per cent, and already that decline is looking like a mere blip in this 11-month long rally.
The Shanghai ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Blowing Bubbles