Archive for June, 2015

Overnight Data Preview

Monday, June 1st, 2015

Via Robert Sinche at Amherst Pierpont Securities: AUSTRALIA: The BBerg consensus expects the RBA to leave the Cash Rate at the record low 2.0%. The consensus expects a 1Q Current Account deficit of $A10.8bn; the last time Australia enjoyed a current account surplus was 2Q 1975 (yep, that was 40 years ...

Another Slump in House Prices?

Monday, June 1st, 2015

Bank America is forecasting a three year decline in house prices beginning in 2017. Via Bloomberg: Americans will face falling home prices in a matter of years as personal income gains fail to keep pace with the recovery from the financial crisis, according to a Bank of America Corp. analyst.Chris Flanagan predicted ...

ISM Analysis

Monday, June 1st, 2015

Via Millan Mulraine at TDSecurities: The better tone in the May ISM manufacturing sector report provided some much needed optimism that the US economic recovery may be heading back on track, contrasting with the weaker tone in the various regional manufacturing reports and the spending report earlier today. The relatively upbeat ...

Savings and Spending Analysis

Monday, June 1st, 2015

Via FTN Financial : Personal consumption was unchanged in April, below the consensus for a 0.2% increase, with March consumption upwardly revised to 0.5% from 0.4%. Personal income rose 0.4%, slightly above expectations. Spending on services rose 0.2%, while spending on goods fell 0.5%, though taking March’s 0.2% upward revision into ...

What to Watch for Today

Monday, June 1st, 2015

Via Bloomberg: WHAT TO WATCH: * (All times New York) * Economic Data * * 8:30am: Personal Income, April, est. 0.3% (prior 0%) * * Personal Spending, April, est. 0.2% (prior 0.4%) * Inflation Adjusted Personal Spending, April (prior 0.3%) * PCE Deflator m/m, April, est. 0.1% (prior 0.2%) * PCE Deflator y/y, April, est. 0.2% (prior 0.3%) * PCE Core m/m, ...

Marginal Propensity to Consume Declines

Monday, June 1st, 2015

Via Bloomberg and my friend Steve Liddy: Frugality of High Earners in U.S. Shows Long Shadow of Recession 2015-06-01 09:00:00.1 GMT By Anna-Louise Jackson (Bloomberg) -- The nearly rich aren’t spending nearly enough, a trend that’s weighing on U.S. growth. Six years after the worst recession since the 1930s, Americans who earn $100,000 to $249,999 a year ...

FX

Monday, June 1st, 2015

Via Marc Chandler at Bloomberg: Drivers for the Week Ahead May was an eventful month, but June will be even more challenging for investors. Her are a few top level points to consider: 1.  Talk of a US recession is exaggerated. 2.  The eurozone's unemployment is more than twice the US level 3. As was ...

Fiscal Machinations in China

Monday, June 1st, 2015

Via Bloomberg: China Considers Doubling Its Local Bond-Swap Program 10:15 PM EDT May 31, 2015 Chinese policy makers are considering plans to as much as double the size of a clean-up program for shaky local government finances, according to people familiar with the discussions. In what would be the second stage of the program, a ...

Overnight Flows

Monday, June 1st, 2015

It was a very quiet evening. Dealers report end user selling in 10s and money managers establishing flatteners in 5s 30s. Size in each instance was quite modest. The curve has reversed some of the steepening which occurred Friday late. The 5s 10s and 5s 30s spreads are about a basis ...

Blowing Bubbles

Monday, June 1st, 2015

Via the FT: MarketsShanghai stocks rebound 4.7%, Shenzhen at new high 2 hours ago URL Twitter Call it a pull back with Chinese characteristics. It's been a mere two sessions since China's benchmark stock index tumbled 6.5 per cent, and already that decline is looking like a mere blip in this 11-month long rally. The Shanghai ...