Archive for June, 2015
Tuesday, June 2nd, 2015
Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman:
Dollar Lower as Turn Around Tuesday Unfolds
Sterling's seven day losing streak appears to be ending today with the help of a stronger than expected construction PMI. The Nikkei's 12-day really streak ended today with a minor loss, helped by profit-taking in the financials ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on FX
Tuesday, June 2nd, 2015
Via a fully paid up subscriber:
The attached chart shows Core PCE y/y (excl Food & Energy) vs. Dallas Fed Trimmed Mean PCE. The latter is shown as the white line which has been steady for last 2 qtrs or so at around 1.5%-1.6% on y/y basis whereas Core PCE has ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Trimmed mean Inflation Rates
Tuesday, June 2nd, 2015
The yield curve has manifested mixed movement in overnight trading. When viewed against 500PM closing levels I see 5s 10s and 5s 30s a tad steeper while 10s 30s has flattened a touch. The belly has cheapened with 2s 5s 10s now 27.7 versus 26.8 at the New York close.
There ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Treasury Market Update
Tuesday, June 2nd, 2015
Via Kit Juckes at SocGen:
<http://www.sgresearch.com/r/?id=hdde84e2,12d6f04d,12d6f04e&p1=136122&p2=9f422320ba230efecc2f0662492a0f24>
Good Morning. I've swapped wet Frankfurt for damp and windy London, but the weatherman promises me that Flaming June will be in full flow by the weekend. Which is apt, becausr that's what wwill happen to the dollar...if only the data help....
If the May data round, ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Early FX Musings
Monday, June 1st, 2015
Corporate treasurers are racing down the train platform and grabbing hold of the interest rate caboose as it pulls out of the station. Fear of a hiking cycle has motivated these issuers of debt to sell nearly as many long bonds in the first five months of 2015 as they ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Caboose Leaving the Station
Monday, June 1st, 2015
We have passed quite a bit of time discussing the winter weather and its potential to influence policy makers. In this article the WSJ discusses El Nino and monetary policy.
Via the WSJ:
Fed-watchers and economists have spent the past few weeks trying to figure out how bad weather in the first ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on El Nino and Central Banks
Monday, June 1st, 2015
The Atlanta Fed plugged today's spending data into its running model of Q2 GDP and it is unchanged from the last projection of 0.8 percent on May 26.
Via the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta:
Latest forecast — June 1, 2015
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Atlanta Fed GDP Forecast
Monday, June 1st, 2015
A brief time ago I posted this about a 100 year bond issued today by Petrobras. I had a bit of a fuzzy memory regarding the history of this type of issuance and a fully paid up subscriber found this article which recaps the history of those long dated bonds. ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Century Bonds: A Brief History
Monday, June 1st, 2015
I have published numerous articles here on the decline in liquidity in the market place. This excellent article from Bloomberg cites Street research which posits that the largest declines in liquidity have actually occurred in the Treasury market.
Via Bloomberg:
Bond market liquidity is terrible, goes the familiar refrain across Wall Street.
While ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Bond Market Liquidity Revisited: Excellent Read
Monday, June 1st, 2015
Petrobras sold 100 year bonds today at a yield of 8.45 percent. The deal raised $2.5 billion US dollars and the order book was $10 billion.
I think back in 1993 Disney and Mexico sold century bonds very close to market tops. I just peeked again at the article and it ...
Posted in Uncategorized | 2 Comments »