Archive for June, 2015
Thursday, June 4th, 2015
This is a very interesting article (to me) on the persistence of low wages in spite of the fall in the unemployment rate nationally and in cities across the country.
Via the WSJ:
By
Ben Leubsdorf and
Jon Hilsenrath
June 3, 2015 10:30 p.m. ET
COLUMBUS, Ohio—The unemployment rate here and in other thriving ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Low Wages
Thursday, June 4th, 2015
Via the FT:
Well, this has been quite a morning, but bunds have picked up after a hefty hit at the start of the day.
The 10-year German yield soared to within shouting distance of a full one percent earlier, hitting 0.99 per cent. It has now backed down to 0.93 per ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Bund Carnage Continues
Thursday, June 4th, 2015
The rout continues in the Treasury market and the belly of the Treasury curve is now swollen and distended. The 2s 5s spread this morning is about 104 basis points. The last time I have a mark above 104 was in early December 2014. I had marked the spread at ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Overnight Note
Thursday, June 4th, 2015
This is the usual excellent note on FX from Kit Juckes at SocGen. This morning he has a great quote which connects Peter Pan and monetary policy. Read on.
Via Kit Juckes at SocGen:
<http://www.sgresearch.com/r/?id=hde53869,12e136c5,12e136c6&p1=136122&p2=819bc4071c96d0b36216abf6b3ed21c1>
I blame Haruhiko Kuroda, but the image that sprang to mind this morning wasn't of Super Mario but ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Peter Pan and Monetary Policy
Thursday, June 4th, 2015
A long time reader and fully paid up subscriber penned this note overnight which paints a bleak picture of the technical picture for the 10 year note. He writes that the benchmark issue has broken long term support and is headed to 2.80/3.00 percent.
Via a fully paid up subscriber:
US 10Y ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Technical Note
Wednesday, June 3rd, 2015
Via Merrill Lynch Research:
Long vol. German 10-year bund yields jumped another 16.8bps today to 88bps on more encouraging European data (PMI, unemployment rate, retail sales), but especially as ECB President Draghi at his regular press conference failed to push back on the recent increases in long term rates and warned ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Eclectic Topics
Wednesday, June 3rd, 2015
Excerpt from end of day note by Ian Lyngen at CRT Capital:
Treasuries traded down again on Wednesday as the selloff continues and yields established new highs for the year - notably 10-year yields broke the 2.364% resistance to reach the intraday high since Nov 7 (when 2.398% marked the end ...
Posted in Uncategorized | 12 Comments »
Wednesday, June 3rd, 2015
This is a note from my friend Steve Liddy which has some interesting tidbits on convexity (the negative kind). He sent the note out about two hours ago.
Via Steve Liddy:
Appreciate all the feedback and doing what I can to help...talking to a customer was told
" waves of buying over the ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Mortgage Convexity
Wednesday, June 3rd, 2015
Via Robert Sinche at Amherst Pierpont Securities
AUSTRALIA: The Trade Balance has been in deficit for 12 straight months through March, and likely stayed there in April, as exports to China slow and import costs rise with the weaker AUD. The sharp drop in the AUD that began in September 2014 ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Overnight Preview
Wednesday, June 3rd, 2015
Same market maker who requires anonymity:
Today has a different feel than earlier bearish corrections that saw both swap spreads narrow and the curve flatten. Throughout the year the duration re-balances that have taken place in down trades have been focused in highly liquid instruments like FV, TY and cash ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on More Swap Commentary