Archive for June, 2015
Friday, June 5th, 2015
Via an anonymous market maker who is a fully paid up subscriber:
I was hoping for a rally to see how the market would react to a bounce off the recent rout in global fixed income. My sense is that "a bounce" would be a get out of jail free card ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Swap market Commentary
Friday, June 5th, 2015
Corporate bond spreads are not moving much in the post labor report world. Bank and finance paper is a basis point or two wider and industrials are about unchanged.
One syndicate desk manager thought that the market is manifesting some strains away from today's trading in which Treasury trading will dominate. ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Corporate Bonds
Friday, June 5th, 2015
Via Millan Mulraine at TDSecurities:
The US labor market record a stronger than expected 280K gain in employment following the downwardly revised 221K gain last month, lifting hopes that the positive momentum in underlying economic activity has re-emerged. The market expectation was for a far more modest 226K gain. The stellar ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Labor Report Thoughts
Friday, June 5th, 2015
I am hearing of chunky buying in the 5 year sector by end users as levels above 1.75 percent appear attractive.
I am a skeptic here. I am an armchair economist and this appears to me to be an unabashedly strong number. The headline is strong. The average hourly earnings number ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Treasury Flows
Friday, June 5th, 2015
Post the stronger than expected labor data the belly of the curve is under attack. I see 2s 5s at 104 versus 100 prior. The 2s 5s 10s spread has cheapened to 38 from 32.5. The 5s 30s spread has collapsed to 133 from 140.
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Yield Curve Shifts
Friday, June 5th, 2015
Via Bloomberg:
RATES: Treasury Market Reaction to Last Six Employment Reports
2015-06-05 11:45:00.0 GMT
By Katherine Chiglinsky
(Bloomberg) -- Of the last 6 employment reports, 3
triggered rallies, 3 spurred selloffs.
* April data released on May 8; NFP rose 223K vs 228K est.
*
* 10Y yield fell as much as 8.1bps and closed down 3.2bps,
5Y yield ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Reaction to last Six labor Reports
Friday, June 5th, 2015
On this day in 1968 the world lost Robert Kennedy to an assassin's bullet. That event culminated a tumultuous two month period in which LBJ chose not to seek reelection and Martin Luther King was also murdered.
Would Bobby Kennedy have defeated Hubert Humphrey in the contest for the Democrat Party's ...
Posted in Uncategorized | 2 Comments »
Friday, June 5th, 2015
Via Jon Hilsenrath at the WSJ:
Federal Reserve officials are in wait-and-see mode ahead of their June policy meeting, meaning the May employment report to be released Friday morning at 8:30 a.m. EDT isn’t likely to push them toward an interest rate increase this month.
Many Fed officials began the year believing ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Hilsenrath Article (Not particularly informative)
Friday, June 5th, 2015
Via Robert Sinche at Amherst Pierpont Securities:
CHINA: The BBerg consensus expects the China Trade balance to rebound to $45.1bn in May from $34.1bn as the consensus expects export growth to “rebound” to only -4.4% YOY from -6.4% YOY in April.
JAPAN: The BBerg consensus expects a slight upward revision in 1Q ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Weekend Data Preview (Very Early)
Friday, June 5th, 2015
Via Bloomberg:
WHAT TO WATCH:
* (All times New York)
* Economic Data
*
* 8:30am: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, May, est. 226k
(prior 223k)
*
* Change in Private Payrolls, May, est. 220k (prior
213k)
* Change in Mfg Payrolls, May, est. 5K (prior 1k)
* Unemployment Rate, May, est. 5.4% (prior 5.4%)
* Average Hourly Earnings m/m, May, est. 0.2% ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on What to Watch Today