Archive for June, 2015

FX

Thursday, June 11th, 2015

Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman: Will a Strong Retail Sales Report Help the Dollar? The recent string of data shows the US economy is recovering from what will likely be revised into a small quarterly contraction.  We know that slack in the labor market continues to be absorbed.  Evidence ...

Bund Yields, Euro, and Inflation Expectations

Thursday, June 11th, 2015

Around this time each day I usually publish the FX piece of Mark Chandler of Brown Brothers Harriman. Mr Chandler has a website which I recently discovered which publishes more than the daily piece I post here. What follows is an interesting analysis of the rise in Bund yields and ...

Secondary market Corporate Bond Trading Yesterday

Thursday, June 11th, 2015

Via Bloomberg: IG CREDIT: Recap of Secondary Trading, Spreads Leak Wider 2015-06-11 09:49:33.778 GMT By Robert Elson (Bloomberg) -- Secondary IG trading ended with a Trace count of $16.4b vs $15.5b Tuesday, $17.5b the previous Wednesday. 10-DMA $15.2b. * 144a trading added $3b of IG volume vs $2.2b on Tuesday, $2.7b last Wednesday * Most active issues: * * ABBV 3.60% ...

Reasons for Recent Market Turmoil

Thursday, June 11th, 2015

David Ader is an interest rate strategist at CRT Capital whose work I frequently use here. As he notes in this piece he has recently been friendly to the market and obviously that has been the wrong stance. He surveyed clients regarding what they thought was the reason for the ...

European Bond Supply

Thursday, June 11th, 2015

Via the FT: Oh you want to borrow some money? It'll cost you. Spain, Italy and Ireland all paid higher yields at bond auctions today then they might recently have been getting used to, thanks to the blast higher in bund yields, *write Joel Lewin and Katie Martin.** By historical standards, the returns ...

Greece Banks

Thursday, June 11th, 2015

A fully paid up subscriber overseas forwarded this link to a (UK) Times story which suggests that if a deal is not reached shortly the ECB would impose higher collateral requirements on Greek banks. I tried the link and you do get the story but in truncated form unless you ...

Early Morning FX Musings

Thursday, June 11th, 2015

Via Kit Juckes of SocGen: <http://www.sgresearch.com/r/?id=hdf28403,12f68255,12f68256&p1=136122&p2=9bcf916686f0337e85b0fbfb6c1c9c27> FX daily above. But Swedish CPI data are just out and worth a mention. Can we write up a 0.1% y/y inflation rate (vs -0.1 expected) as 'Inflation Back with a Vengeance'? Maybe that's a BIT strong, but the temptation is there because Sweden is either ...

Downgrading Growth Forecasts

Wednesday, June 10th, 2015

Via WSJ: By IAN TALLEY June 10, 2015 4:02 p.m. ET 0 COMMENTS The World Bank downgraded its outlook for global economic growth this year amid a broad-based slowdown in emerging markets and softer output in the U.S. The development institution on Wednesday said that it now expects the world economy to grow by 2.8%, 0.2 ...

Merrill Lynch on the Federal Funds rate and Long Term Interest Rates

Wednesday, June 10th, 2015

Via Merrill Lynch Research The funds rate coming up short. One of the key views we have voiced this year is that once the Fed starts hiking interest rates, they also want to see long term interest rates go up. This opinion is motivated by a number of speeches by New ...

Overnight Data Preview

Wednesday, June 10th, 2015

Via Robert Sinche at Amherst Pierpont Securities: Central Bank Policy decisions by the RBNZ (BBerg consensus unchanged at 3.5%) and the Bank of Korea (BBerg consensus -25bp to 1.50%). CHINA: MAJOR data releases for May Retail Sales, Industrial Production and Fixed Investment. The BBerg consensus expecting a slight 0.1pp improvement in both ...