Archive for June, 2015

Eclectic Topics

Thursday, June 11th, 2015

Via Merrill Lynch Research: Out of duration. High-grade funds reported an inflow of $1.05bn, supported in part by rising inflows to short-term funds as investors rotate out of duration and hide in the front end. Hence long-term high-grade funds reported an outflow of $0.72bn - the highest weekly reading since the ...

Another Conversation About Treasury Market Liquidity

Thursday, June 11th, 2015

This is an excellent article on the decline in trading volumes as well as the drop in liquidity in the US Treasury market. There is also a great word "noughties" which I guess must be a word if it is in the FT.   Via the FT: Treasury volumes raise liquidity concerns Robin Wigglesworth World’s ...

Swap Market Commentary

Thursday, June 11th, 2015

Via a fully paid up subscriber (and for sake of accuracy received here at Acrossthecurve.com Global headquarters at 1241PM: Swaps Update Treasuries are rallying despite stronger data and looming supply.  This is a bullish sign, especially with 10y Germany rallying back convincingly through 1%.  Daily momentum for both UST and Bunds is ...

Overnight Data Preview

Thursday, June 11th, 2015

Via Robert SInche at Amherst Pierpont Securities: INDIA: Over the next few days May data on Imports and Exports will be released, with YOY Export growth a very disappointing -14.0% YOY in April; export growth has averaged -15.3% YOY during the first 4 months of 2015. NEW ZEALAND: The May Manufacturing PMI ...

Atlanta Fed GDP Model

Thursday, June 11th, 2015

The Atlanta Fed has a GDP model which nailed the weak growth in Q1 and which now shows Q2 gaining some traction. The current forecast today is for growth of 1.9 percent in Q2. The previous forecast on June 3 showed growth at 1.1 percent. Via the Federal Reserve Bank of ...

IMF and Greece: Major Differences Remain

Thursday, June 11th, 2015

Via Bloomberg: IMF Says It Has Major Difference With Greece in Most Key Areas 2015-06-11 14:30:17.266 GMT By Andrew Mayeda (Bloomberg) -- The IMF said that its team negotiating with Greece has left Brussels after failing to make progress on a debt deal that would help the country to avoid default. “The ball is very much in ...

Thirty Year Auction Factoids

Thursday, June 11th, 2015

Via CRT Capital: We are cautious about this afternoon's long-bond reopening auction, however we still anticipate solid non-dealer awards.  Our logic here is relatively straightforward; the market isn't offering any concession today, recent history suggests stop-throughs are rare, and the 30-year sector isn't one that typically benefits from overseas sponsorship. On ...

New Issue Calendar

Thursday, June 11th, 2015

Via Bloomberg: IG CREDIT: List of New Issues Expected to Price in U.S. Today 2015-06-11 14:01:05.999 GMT By Allan Lopez (Bloomberg) -- 6 new issues expected to price today: * Devon Energy $600m Baa1/BBB+ * * 30Y * IPT +215 area * Books: GS, JPM * Ford Motor Credit $benchmark Baa3/BBB- * * 3Y fxd and/or FRN * Denoms: $200k x $1k * IPT ...

Retail Sales

Thursday, June 11th, 2015

Via TDSecurities: Consumer spending activity numbers come in line with market consensus, with total retail sales boasting a very strong 1.2% m/m gain in May, and it follows the upwardly revised 0.2% m/m advance the month before (previously reported as 0.0% m/m). The gains were very strong across the board, with ...

Repo Market Evolution

Thursday, June 11th, 2015

Via Bloomberg: BFW 06/11 10:46 Money-Market Funds Finding New Repo Partners as Dealers Retreat Money-Market Funds Finding New Repo Partners as Dealers Retreat 2015-06-11 10:38:08.461 GMT (To be sent this Credit Markets column, click SALT CMW. For more credit-market columns, see TOP CM.) By Liz Capo McCormick (Bloomberg) -- Facing a shrinking pool of dealers in a ...