Archive for June, 2015

Thoughts on FOMC

Wednesday, June 17th, 2015

Via Chris Low at FTN Financial (chart he alludes to does not come out on this low rent blog). The updated dotplot is at the bottom of this message. (Thanks, Sophia.) I miscounted the 2016 dots in my earlier note. The median fell a quarter-point in both 2016 and 2017. Bear ...

Dealer Thoughts on FOMC

Wednesday, June 17th, 2015

Via Bloomberg: : ‘Dovish’ Fed Still May Hike This Year 2015-06-17 19:15:45.543 GMT By Katherine Chiglinsky (Bloomberg) -- FOMC policy statement seemed more dovish and reflected notion that Fed would likely begin hiking rates later this yr, according to some economists/strategists. * For text of policy statement, see here: for side-by-side comparison with previous statement, see here * Capital ...

Hilsenrath Article

Wednesday, June 17th, 2015

Via Jon Hilsenrath at the WSJ: By JON HILSENRATH Updated June 17, 2015 3:00 p.m. ET WASHINGTON—The Federal Reserve signaled it was moving toward interest-rate increases later this year now that signs of a slowdown in economic activity are waning, but the path of rate increases could be less steep than officials anticipated. For now, ...

Greek Politics

Wednesday, June 17th, 2015

Via Robert Sinche at Amherst Pierpont Securities: The politics are becoming clear…   (Bloomberg) -- Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras said he’s ready to take responsibility for rejecting the terms of a deal on aid if creditors' demands are unacceptable. With a viable solution “the Greek government recently elected by the Greek people ...

Some Excellent Commentary on Swaps and Today’s FOMC

Wednesday, June 17th, 2015

Via a fully paid up subscriber: The swap market has only seen a slow grind wider in spreads even with the rather unsettling price action in European periphery to start the session yesterday.  All the realized bond market volatility has depressed new issue volume in both HY and IG.  Event driven ...

What to Watch Today

Wednesday, June 17th, 2015

Via Bloomberg: WHAT TO WATCH: * (All times New York) * Economic Data * * 7:00am: MBA Mortgage Applications, June 12 (prior 8.4%) * Central Banks * * 4:30am: Bank of England issues meeting minutes * 2:00pm: FOMC sets overnight bank lending rate target, est. 0% to 0.25% (prior 0% to 0.25%), issues updated SEP; Yellen news conference to follow

Aging Baby Boomer Alerts

Wednesday, June 17th, 2015

Today is June 17th and on this date in 1972 a third rate burglary at the Watergate began the series of events which two years later would lead to the impeachment hearings and then the resignation of Richard Nixon. Separately, at Salon.com a fellow named Noah Berlatsky trashes Bob Dylan which ...

FX

Wednesday, June 17th, 2015

Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman: Sterling Steals Some of Fed's Spotlight It was supposed to be all about the Federal Reserve today, but the strong UK's weekly earnings data has sent sterling to four-week highs and brought forward market-based measures of the BOE's first rate hike.  Previously, the SONIA ...

Secondary Market Corporate Bond Trading Yesterday

Wednesday, June 17th, 2015

Via Bloomberg: IG CREDIT: Communications Issues Led Trading; Pipeline Grows 2015-06-17 10:01:05.357 GMT By Robert Elson (Bloomberg) -- Secondary IG trading ended with a Trace count of $15.1b vs $12.4b Monday, $15.5b the previous Tuesday. * 10-DMA $14.4b * 144a trading added $1.8b of IG volume vs $1.8b Monday, $2.2b last Tuesday * 2015-16 maturities took 3 of the ...

Early FX Musings

Wednesday, June 17th, 2015

Via Kit Juckes at SocGen: <http://www.sgresearch.com/r/?id=hdfc5e4b,13065654,13065655&p1=136122&p2=be18db4ce192d3b71e2e17edcf411f55> UK wage growth, measured as a 3m average y/y rate, picked up sharply to 2.7% in April from 2.3%. The actual April y/y total is 2.9%, steady from last month excluding bonuses. NAIRU, absent for so long, may be back. Construction (5.3% y/y) and finance (4.7%) ...