Archive for June, 2015

Eclectic Topics

Thursday, June 18th, 2015

Via Merrill Lynch Research: Rotation accelerates. Outflows from bond funds accelerated last week (ending on June 17th) to $4.16bn from a $2.76bn outflow in the prior week. The outflows started in the prior week, consistent with the approximately one month lag relative to the start of bond fund losses. At the ...

Meeting on Liquidity

Thursday, June 18th, 2015

I have posted a plethora of these stories on declining market liquidity. The WSJ reports that FINRA hosted a meeting today of market participants on the buy side and sell side to discuss the issue. Via the WSJ: Finra Hosts Closed-Door Meeting on Bond Trading Regulator examining how well bond market could respond ...

Austerity or Chaos

Thursday, June 18th, 2015

Via the FT: Greece’s central bank delivered an alarming warning on Wednesday that the country faced an “uncontrollable crisis” that might force it out of the EU if the government was unable to reach a new bailout deal with creditors soon. But the throng of young supporters gathered outside the Greek parliament ...

TIPS Result

Thursday, June 18th, 2015

Via CRT Capital: *** The 30-year TIPS auction was well received with non-dealer bidding at 75.1% vs. 65.9% norm and a 0.3 bp stop-through. *** * 30-year TIPS auction stops at 1.142% vs. a 1.145% 1-pm bid WI. * Dealers were awarded 24.9% vs. 34.1% average of last eight. * Indirects get 70.8% vs. ...

In Defense of a Bastard

Thursday, June 18th, 2015

Alexander Hamilton will be vacating his place on the $10 bill in several years. This writer offers a spirited defense of Hamilton and his place in American History. Via Ben Domenech aat Federalist.com: Alexander Hamilton: Immigrant, Bastard, Patriot Alexander Hamilton was a bastard, but he was a righteous bastard. Ben Domenech By Ben Domenech June 18, ...

Overnight Data Preview

Thursday, June 18th, 2015

Via Robert Sinche of Amherst Pierpont Securities: NEW ZEALAND: If Consumer Confidence slips in June if could add to expectations of additional RBNA rate cuts…and a weaker NZD. The Consumer Confidence index was 123.9 in May. CHINA: The MNI Business Indicator is the first of many monthly indicators of the economy. The ...

Apocalypse

Thursday, June 18th, 2015

Citibank predicts a bond market debacle when the FOMC raises rates. Via the National Post: Will a Fed hike trigger a bond meltdown this fall? 2015-06-18 14:48:00.314 GMT By John Shmuel June 18 (National Post) -- A new report from Citigroup warns that no matter how the U.S. Federal Reserve raises interest rates this year, it will ...

Treasury Market Update

Thursday, June 18th, 2015

The curve has undergone a pretty dramatic shift since I first marked levels this morning at 600AM. In outright yield terms the Long Bond has moved from 3.049 to 3.124. The 5s 10s spread has ratcheted out to 70.8 from 68.5. The 5s 30s spread has jumped to 149.9 from ...

Guest Post

Thursday, June 18th, 2015

My friend Steve Liddy wrote this note post the FOMC in which he sang the praises of the 5 year note. He reiterates his love for the issue again this morning. Via Steve Liddy: I've had a few people ask me this morning. My answer is 'yes'. Early on, in the o/n ...

Weak CPI

Thursday, June 18th, 2015

Via Millan Mulraine at TDSecurities: Higher energy prices pushed headline CPI up 0.4% m/m in May, with the annual pace of consumer price inflation rebounding to a flat print from -0.2% y/y the month before. The increase in prices, however, fell short of the market consensus for a 0.5% m/m advance ...