Archive for May, 2015

Q2 GDP

Friday, May 1st, 2015

The Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank publishes a real time estimate of current quarter GDP. That model nailed the below consensus 0.2 percent GDP. At the current time that Bank estimates Q2 is running at a 0.8 percent rate which is well below economists forecasts. Here is a link to the ...

Aging Baby Boomer Alert

Friday, May 1st, 2015

Ben E King who sang with the Drifters and then quite successfully in a solo career has died. He is most famous for his recording of "Stand by Me". I was perusing the obits on line and one claimed that "Stand by Me"  was the 4th most recorded song of ...

Treasury Market Flows

Friday, May 1st, 2015

Dealers report chunky buying of the 2s through 10s as 60 basis points on 2s and 1.50 on 5s and 2.10 on 10s attracts end user buyers. The pertinent question is why the market is throwing up all over its shoes if there is that much buying. There is chunky selling ...

ISM

Friday, May 1st, 2015

Via Millan Mulraine at TDSecurities: The ISM manufacturing sector report served up a very sobering glimpse on the US economic recovery, with the headline index remaining unchanged at 51.5 in April. This was a weak report and the absence of any bounce is a clear indication that the US economic recovery ...

what to watch for today

Friday, May 1st, 2015

Via the good folks at Bloomberg: WHAT TO WATCH: * (All times New York) * Economic Data * 9:45am: Markit US Manufacturing PMI, April final, est. 54.2 (prior 54.2) * 10:00am: Construction Spending m/m, March, est. 0.5% (prior -0.1%) * 10:00am: ISM Manufacturing, April, est. 52 (prior 51.5) * ISM Prices Paid, April, est. 42 (prior 39) * ISM Prices ...

FX

Friday, May 1st, 2015

Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman: Dollar Rout Narrows to Euro Correction - The broad-based dollar sell-off this week has considerably narrowed - Japan reported that despite the tightness in the labor market, cash earnings remain weak. - China reported its official manufacturing PMI, unchanged at 50.1 - The UK disappointed with an unexpected ...

Corporate Bond Market Liquidity

Friday, May 1st, 2015

When I was a salesman I often posited my "semi frozen lake in Minnesota in late April" theory of price action. There are forty people parked on the lake as it begins to melt in the springtime. What happens if two or three head for the edge to escape? They ...

Goldman Sachs on Europe

Friday, May 1st, 2015

Via a fully paid up subscriber: GS on taking stock and looking ahead - trade recommendations GS note the sell-off in core European rates extended yesterday, setting the tone for other markets. Since last Friday, German 10-year Bunds are up in yield by 20bp to 36bp, and the 30-year by 30bp to ...

Saudi Arabia Burning Through Reserves

Friday, May 1st, 2015

Via the FT: Saudi Arabia is burning through its foreign reserves at a record rate, as the kingdom seeks to maintain spending plans despite lower oil prices. The central bank’s foreign reserves have dropped by $36bn, or 5 per cent, over the past two months, as newly crowned King Salman bin Abdulaziz ...

Random Musings from Kit Juckes

Friday, May 1st, 2015

Via Kit Juckes at SocGen: <http://www.sgresearch.com/r/?id=hda03327,127783fc,127783fd&p1=136122&p2=7838bae3ef4142b0945c51088693b71f> FX weekly link above....Weak US data, the oil price bounce and a pick-up in European growth have all weighed on positioning and the fallout has been seen in higher Bund yields, a stronger euro, a weaker US dollar and a bounce in the commodity-currency bloc. Now ...