Archive for May, 2015

Thoughts on the UK Election

Friday, May 8th, 2015

A fully paid up subscriber forwarded this compilation of research pieces on the market consequences of the Conservative victory in the UK. Via a fully paid up subscriber: Barcs: They expect the result as it stands to be positive for gilt asset swaps, and also potentially for gilts outright. They expect the ...

Last Post of the Day

Thursday, May 7th, 2015

David Ader and Ian Lyngen at CRT Capital publish a pre labor report each month which attempts to discern what might happen in the immediate aftermath of the labor report. Here is this month's edition which is an excerpt from their end of day note. Via CRT Capital: RESULTS!!! CRT, PRE-NON FARM ...

Merrill Lynch Research on Eclectic Topics

Thursday, May 7th, 2015

Via Merrill Lynch Research: The major jump in Bund yields overnight was caused by a French auction of 10-year bonds that was very weak. This mirrors US HG credit where the combination of rates risk and heavy supply volumes has re-priced credit spreads wider. Expect supply to continue as a major driver of ...

Student Loans as the New SubPrime

Thursday, May 7th, 2015

Via Gillian Tett at the FT:   May 7, 2015 6:38 pm Debt hangover ruins the American dream Gillian Tett There are ‘eerie parallels’ between the loan tale and subprime mortgages A decade ago, American consumers seemed the most debt-addicted people on the planet. Since 2008, however, something rather remarkable has occurred: the level of consumer ...

Anatomy of a Bond Rout

Thursday, May 7th, 2015

Via Eric Green at TDSecurities: TD: Anatomy of a Bond Rout Today at 2:27 PM Anatomy of a Bond Rout The rout across global bond markets has been swift and decisive. Consensus trades long EGB’s and short the Euro are being unwound in part owing to the better than expected economic data ...

Overnight Preview

Thursday, May 7th, 2015

Via Robert Sinche at Amherst Pierpont Securities: CHINA: : The BBerg consensus expects the Chinese Trade Surplus to jump to $39.6bn in April from an unusually low, holiday-impacted 3.1bn in March. The wide US Trade deficit for March suggests there could be an even larger surplus in China as US demand ...

Corporate Bonds Recap

Thursday, May 7th, 2015

Yesterday witnessed heavy issuance in the corporate bond sector with mega deals from Apple and Shell Oil. The Apple deal is trading a basis point to two better than pricing levels. For example, the 10 year priced +100 and someone quoted the issue 99/98 several minutes ago. The 30 year deal ...

Today’s New Issue Corporate Calendar

Thursday, May 7th, 2015

Via Bloomberg: IG CREDIT: List of New Issues Expected to Price in U.S. Today 2015-05-07 14:02:55.953 GMT By Allan Lopez (Bloomberg) -- The following is a list of new issues expected to price today: * Boston Scientific $benchmark Baa3/BBB- * 5Y, 7Y, 10Y * IPT 5Y +145, 7Y +165, 10Y +180 (all area) * Books: Barclays, C, DB, JPM * ...

Factoid on Overnight VOlume

Thursday, May 7th, 2015

Via a fully paid up subscriber: Amid the overnight continuation of the sell-off in Europe, total TY equivalent volume in Treasury futures was more than triple its 20-day average and the highest since October 16 (the overnight following October 15's flash rally). Volume in TY alone nearly equal to yesterday's relatively ...

Guest Blogger Says Sell The Rallies

Thursday, May 7th, 2015

This is via my friend Steve Liddy: …humor me for a second…remember when Sheriff Brody (Roy Scheider) is up in the shark tower and sees a large shadow in the water? He comes storming down wielding his pistol and yelling: “SHARK!! GET OUT OF THE WATER…GET OUT OF THE WATER”. Mass ...