Archive for May, 2015
Friday, May 8th, 2015
Via Eric Green at TDSecurities:
The April jobs report looks good in the context of what has been a significant slowdown in growth and at 223k, modestly below consensus, the job gains in the month look pretty solid. That is well off the pace we have seen going into the March ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Labor Report Analysis
Friday, May 8th, 2015
The 5s 30s spread has moved to about 138 from about 134 prior to the report (my marks at 816AM).
I think there are several reasons for the move. There is refunding supply next week and dealers had not set shorts for that supply parade as the extreme volatility experienced recently ...
Posted in Uncategorized | 2 Comments »
Friday, May 8th, 2015
Via Bloomberg:
IG CREDIT: Dealer Positions in Corporates Rise in Most Sectors
2015-05-08 10:43:28.114 GMT
By Robert Elson
(Bloomberg) -- Dealer positions in corporate bonds fell
$1.6b to $26.6b as of April 29. $21.1b, seen Feb. 11, is the low
for the series Fed began in April 2013. $45.9b, seen March 5,
2014 is the high.
* Investment ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Dealer Positions in Corporate Bonds
Friday, May 8th, 2015
Via Bloomberg and better late than never:
RATES: Treasury Market Reaction to Last Six Employment Reports
2015-05-08 11:45:00.0 GMT
By Katherine Chiglinsky
(Bloomberg) -- Of the last 6 employment reports, 3
triggered rallies, 3 spurred selloffs.
* March data released on April 3; NFP rose 126K vs 245K est.
* 10Y yield fell as much as 11.2bps, ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Treasury Market Reaction to Last Six Jobs Reports
Friday, May 8th, 2015
Via Jon Hilsenrath at the WSJ:
Federal Reserve officials are counting on an economic rebound in the weeks ahead after a disappointing first quarter.
Friday morning they’ll get their first concrete evidence of whether such a bounce back is materializing.
By now you’ve likely read lots about the effects of cold weather, snow ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Hilsenrath on Jobs Report
Friday, May 8th, 2015
Nate Silver is an American statistician and pollster who gained fame analyzing baseball and then even more fame predicting the outcome of American elections. I am not sure how pollsters are ranked but he nailed the last two US Presidential elections more accurately than any other forecaster. He and his ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Polling Problem
Friday, May 8th, 2015
TheHill.com reports that Senator Richard Shelby (Chairman of the Senate Finance Committee) is drafting legislation which would make changes at the Fed. One interesting proposal is to make the President of the New York Fed subject to Senate confirmation.
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Reforming the Fed
Friday, May 8th, 2015
Via Bloomberg:
German Industrial Production Falls as Economy Risks Grow
by Alessandro Speciale
2:00 AM EDT
May 8, 2015
Output, adjusted for seasonal swings and inflation, fell 0.5 percent after stagnating in February, data from the Economy Ministry in Berlin showed on Friday.
German industrial production unexpectedly declined in March in a sign that Europe’s largest ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on German IP: Less Than Festive
Friday, May 8th, 2015
Dealers report another very active overnight session with real money buying (mostly from Japan) in the 5 year through 10 year sector of the Treasury curve. I see 5s 10s at 61.5 versus 61.9 at about 900PM last evening. The 5s 30s spread is at 133.5 and 10s 30s is ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Treasury Market Update
Friday, May 8th, 2015
The FT has a nice piece here which gives a succinct and clear analysis of the smashing Conservative victory in the UK for those of us in the former colony. The win was a rebuff to the leftward tilt of the Labour Party and also the article says a victory ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on FT on the Politics of the Conservative Party Victory