Archive for May, 2015

Seasonality

Friday, May 15th, 2015

Pedro Da Cost of the WSJ reports on a Federal Reserve Board research paper which pokes holes in the notion that weak Q1 assures stronger growth in remainder of year. Via Pedro Da Costa at the WSJ: By PEDRO NICOLACI DA COSTA CONNECT Federal Reserve Board economists are wading into a heated debate over whetherstatistical ...

Dealer Positions in Corporate Bonds

Friday, May 15th, 2015

Via Bloomberg: G CREDIT: Dealer Positions, Long Maturities Fall to Net Short 2015-05-15 10:43:26.967 GMT By Robert Elson (Bloomberg) -- Dealer positions in corporate bonds fell $3.7b to $22.9b as of May 6. $21.1b, seen Feb. 11, is the low for the series Fed began in April 2013. $45.9b, seen March 5, 2014, is the high. * Investment ...

Slow Growth Good For Stocks?

Friday, May 15th, 2015

David Kelly is a global strategist for JPMorgan's mutual funds and he posits that slow growth is not a problem for stocks.   WALL STREET'S BEST MINDS Why Slow-Growth Economy Is OK for Stocks A JPMorgan strategist writes that above-average P/E ratios for equities may be sustainable By DAVID KELLY Updated May 14, 2015 1:34 p.m. ET Some ...

FX

Friday, May 15th, 2015

Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman: Dollar Ends the Week With a Firmer Tone - The US dollar is enjoying firmer tone as the week winds down - UK construction bounced back in March, gaining 3.9%, the most since January 2014 - During the North American session, the US reports Empire manufacturing, ...

Deja Vu All Over Again

Friday, May 15th, 2015

The WSJ reports that economists expect the economy to spend the remaimder of the year improving. Via the WSJ: By KATHLEEN MADIGAN Updated May 14, 2015 9:13 p.m. ET 26 COMMENTS After a rough start to the year, economists are counting on the U.S. to bounce back in 2015 much like it did in 2014. Forecasters ...

Overnight Flows

Friday, May 15th, 2015

Dealers who are kind enough to communicate with me on the topic of overnight flows report light activity overnight with the only notable activity being real money in Japan buying the 7 year and 8 year sectors.

Secondary Market Corporate Bond Trading Yesterday

Friday, May 15th, 2015

Via Bloomberg: G CREDIT: Trading Volume Falls; DHR/PLL Added to M&A List 2015-05-15 10:10:49.45 GMT By Robert Elson (Bloomberg) -- Secondary IG trading ended with a Trace count of $14.5b vs $17.5b Wednesday, $18.2b the previous Thursday. 10-DMA $15.1b. * 144a trading added $2.6b of IG volume vs $2.3b on Wednesday, $2.9b last Thursday * Most active issues, longer ...

Doji Stars and Other Technical Musings

Friday, May 15th, 2015

A fully paid up subscriber forwarded this technical piece on Bunds.   -- -----RBS on Bunds: Bullish bias remains, favour being long to 0.33% onto 0.22%. Treasuries: Stay tactically bullish to 2.00% onto 1.90%. Gilts: Remain constructive to 1.55% at least and may see yield double top. BTPS: Favour keeping longs to 1.41% at ...

Morning FX Musings

Friday, May 15th, 2015

Via Kit Juckes of SocGen: FX weekly link above. The short version.... Q1 was a car crash for the US economy and Q2 is setting up for a more modest bounce than hoped. Euro area growth forecasts are being revised higher, but Chinese growth is still slowing. Oil prices have bounced, ...

Draghi Suggests Locking Barn Door After Horse is Gone

Thursday, May 14th, 2015

Draghi is nervous about the consequences of aggressive monetary policy. It is a little late for that thought.   Via the FT: Mario Draghi has warned central banks to beware of the risk that aggressive monetary easing, including mass bond buying, could lead to financial instability and worsen income inequality. The European Central Bank president ...