Archive for April, 2015

What to Watch for Today

Friday, April 3rd, 2015

Via Bloomberg: WHAT TO WATCH: * (All times New York; may be subject to delays) Economic Data * 8:30am: Change in Non-farm Payrolls, March, est. 245k (prior 295k) * Change in Private Payrolls, March, est. 238k (prior 288k) * Change in Mfg Payrolls, March, est. 10k (prior 8k) * Unemployment Rate, March., est. 5.5% (prior 5.5%) * Average Hourly ...

FX

Friday, April 3rd, 2015

Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman: One Last Thing before the Week is Over - The US employment report stands between us and the weekend; we think there is an asymmetrical risk - The weak ADP estimate and soft employment in the ISM manufacturing survey warn of the risk of disappointment with ...

Corporate Bond Issuance Pipeline

Friday, April 3rd, 2015

Via Bloomberg: IG CREDIT PIPELINE: List of Possible Issuers for April, Beyond 2015-04-03 09:44:59.127 GMT By Robert Elson (Bloomberg) -- The following deals may be added to the calendar in the coming days, weeks, months: * ING Groep (INTNED) Ba2/na/BB, mandates C/ING/JPM/UBS for investor meetings beginning April 6; inaugural CRDIV compliant Additional Tier 1 transaction may follow * Suncorp-Metway ...

Fed Custody Holdings

Friday, April 3rd, 2015

Via Ian Lyngen at CRT Capital: This week's Fed Custody Holdings of US Treasuries saw a record increase of +$62.9 bn for the week ended Wednesday, April 1.  This is a remarkable increase and it's notable the week included the settlement of the recent 2-, 5-, 7-year auctions as well as ...

Very Important Repo Story

Friday, April 3rd, 2015

This is a very important story about the repo market and the scarcity of collateral caused by regulatory changes. The story notes that the repo books of Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs have each contracted by about 50 percent last year. Traders are having a difficult time borrowing securities and ...

Greek Tragedy Never Ends

Friday, April 3rd, 2015

I had retweeted this article from the UK Telegraph which @Russian_Market has posted on Twitter. It is worth posting here as it describes the increasing potential for a conflict between the Greek Government and the IMF. According to the newspaper the Greek Government is prepared to nationalize its banks and ...

Trade Balance and GDP

Thursday, April 2nd, 2015

This is an informative note from Stephen Stanley at Amherst Pierpont Securities on the trade balance and initial claims. His explanation of the trade deficit and the disruptions at the west coast ports is excellent. He hiked his Q1 GDP forecast to 0.8 from 0.3. Via Stephen Stanley at Amherst Pierpont ...

Lotta Leverage

Thursday, April 2nd, 2015

This nugget about the explosion of leverage in the stock market in China arrived from a fully paid up subscriber. Via Bloomberg: Shanghai Traders Make Trillion-Yuan Stock Bet Backed by Debt (2) 2015-04-02 07:44:32.822 GMT (Updates with closing prices in fifth paragraph.) By Bloomberg News (Bloomberg) -- Shanghai traders now have more than 1 trillion yuan ($161 ...

Iron Ore Prices at Multi Year Lows

Thursday, April 2nd, 2015

Via Bloomberg: Iron ore, which fell below $50 a metric ton on Wednesday, may extend losses as weakening producer currencies cut mining costs, reducing incentives for the supply cuts needed to balance the market, according to Societe Generale SA. Lower energy prices have lessened freight expenses and the inability of many high-cost ...

What to Watch for Today

Thursday, April 2nd, 2015

Via Bloomberg: WHAT TO WATCH: * (All times New York; may be subject to delays) Economic Data * 7:30am: Challenger Job Cuts y/y, March (prior 20.9%) * 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, March 28, est. 287k (prior 282k) * 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, Revisions * Continuing Claims, March 21, est. 2.405m (prior 2.416m) * 8:30am: Trade Balance, Feb., est. ...