Archive for April, 2015

Merrill Lynch on Retail Sales and Corporate Bond Spreads

Monday, April 13th, 2015

Via Merrill Lynch Research: Retail Therapy for the economy, not markets With hardly any expected upside to owning high grade corporate bonds over Treasuries... ...high expected volatility and risks that are skewed to the downside due to the rate hiking cycle... ...we moved our strategic stance on high grade corporate bonds to underweight. Retail Therapy ...

German Wage Gains to Benefit Global Exporters

Sunday, April 12th, 2015

Via WSJ: By Brian Blackstone Updated April 12, 2015 7:20 p.m. ET 4 COMMENTS German workers are getting a raise, which could give a bump to the rest of Europe—and eventually the U.S. and other parts of the world. Economists have long criticized Germany’s export-driven economic philosophy and large trade surpluses. The country’s strategy, they ...

How Many Angels Can Dance on the Head of A Pin

Friday, April 10th, 2015

This Bloomberg article recounts the musings of Citibank's chief economist who wants to abolish cash. The Citibank economist, William Buiter posits that negative rates are not effective because of cash as cash pays zero which is greater than some imposed negative rate. He solves the problem by calling for the ...

The Cost of QE

Friday, April 10th, 2015

This is an interesting article to me from the FT on the costs of QE and a discussion of whether or not QE was worth that cost. The author cites a study by SwissRe which claims that QE has cost savers $470 billion. The report also asserts that the wealth ...

Merrill Lynch on Credit Spreads (and other stuff)

Friday, April 10th, 2015

Via Merrill Lynch Research: Retail therapy for the economy, not markets With hardly any expected upside to owning high grade corporate bonds over Treasuries... ...high expected volatility and risks that are skewed to the downside due to the rate hiking cycle... ...we now move our strategic stance on high grade corporate bonds to underweight. Retail ...

Saudi Arabia and Market Share

Friday, April 10th, 2015

Via WSJ: By Benoît Faucon and Summer Said April 10, 2015 7:14 p.m. ET 0 COMMENTS Saudi Arabia is struggling to maintain its share of the global oil market in a contest that pits the world’s largest crude exporter against traditional allies in the U.S. and Persian Gulf. The Saudi kingdom’s oil exports declined 5.7% in ...

Challenging Rate Hike Cycle

Friday, April 10th, 2015

Via the FT:   Fed faces its trickiest rate cycle yet Robin Wigglesworth   Will they, won’t they? That is the question being asked on trading desks and dealing floors across the financial industry, as markets grapple with whether the US Federal Reserve is still on track to raise its interest rate for the first ...

Weekend Preview

Friday, April 10th, 2015

Via Robert Sinche at Amherst Pierpont Securities: CHINA: Trade Balance data for March will show more normal flows following the New Year holiday; in February the Trade Balance reached a record high of $60.62bn. Focus will be on Export growth, with the BBerg consensus expecting a 9.0% YOY gain. Over the ...

FX

Friday, April 10th, 2015

Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman: Dollar Extends Gains, though Yen Holds its Own - The dollar has extended the recovery seen in North America yesterday, with sterling recording new five-year lows - UK industrial output figures disappointed due to the oil/gas sector - China's CPI was unchanged at 1.4%, ahead of ...

What to Watch Today

Friday, April 10th, 2015

Via Bloomberg: WHAT TO WATCH: * (All times New York) * Economic Data * 8:30am: Import Price Index, March, m/m, est. -0.4% (prior 0.4%) * Import Price Index, March, y/y, est. -10.2% (prior -9.4%) * Import Price Index, March, y/y, est. -10.2% (prior -9.4%)</li></ul> * 2:00pm: Monthly Budget Statement, March, est. -$43.4b (prior -$36.895b) * 2:00pm: Monthly Budget Statement, March, est. -$43.4b (prior ...