Archive for March, 2015

What to Watch Today

Monday, March 30th, 2015

I am back following a Hawaii hiatus. I am still on Pacific Ocean time so it will take a few days to get back on to New Yawk time. Via Bloomberg: WHAT TO WATCH: * (All times New York; may be subject to delays) Economic Data * 8:30am: Personal Income, Feb., est. 0.3% (prior 0.3%) * ...

Tough Times Ahead for Equities?

Sunday, March 29th, 2015

Via WSJ: The latest pullback in technology and biotechnology stocks echoes a temporary selloff last spring. But this time around, some investors are warning that the broader market’s problems could run deeper. In last year’s slump, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 3.3% and the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 8.2% before rebounding. ...

More on Q1 GDP

Sunday, March 29th, 2015

This was on Twitter as I was posting this. Via the FT:   How serious is the US slowdown? Gavyn Davies | Mar 29 16:19 | 3 comments | Share Now that the Federal Reserve has announced that its policy stance after June will ...

Current Quarter GDP

Sunday, March 29th, 2015

The Atlanta Fed constantly monitors current economic data and feeds the data into its model for real time forecasts of current quarter GDP. As of March 25 that model was forecasting current quarter GDP of 0.2 percent. FOMC tightening cycles are generally made of sterner stuff than that. Here is a ...

Consumption Tax Conversations

Sunday, March 29th, 2015

Via WSJ: By John D. McKinnon March 29, 2015 4:09 p.m. ET 19 COMMENTS U.S. lawmakers on both sides of the aisle increasingly are finding appeal in an ambitious concept for overhauling the nation’s income-tax system: a tax based on consumption, a tool long used around the world. The tax-writing Senate Finance Committee is giving new ...

Declining Liquidity

Sunday, March 29th, 2015

Via Barron's: CURRENT YIELD Brace for Increased Volatility Decreased liquidity could exacerbate moves in the market. The key strategy: Go “slow and steady.” By  BRADLEY DAVIS March 27, 2015 9:28 p.m. ET What happens if you want to sell your bonds and no one wants to buy them? A lack of liquidity is an increasing worry in the ...

Yellen Speech

Friday, March 27th, 2015

Via Stephen Stanley at Amherst Pierpont Securities: If anyone out there thought that Janet Yellen is anything other than radically dovish, today’s 19-page treatise on monetary policy should close the books on those misconceptions.  She laid out a detailed explanation of her thinking that serves in my view as an explanation/defense ...

The Only Perfect Hedge is in a Japanese Garden

Thursday, March 26th, 2015

Via the WSJ: By NICOLE FRIEDMAN And ERIN AILWORTH March 26, 2015 3:25 p.m. ET 1 COMMENTS Rocked by months of plunging crude prices, oil producers are harvesting financial bets to raise, for some, much-needed cash. Using specialized trades with nomenclature like “three-way collars” and “butterfly spreads,” producers have long used futures, options and other ...

Strong Dollar and Corporate Earnings

Sunday, March 22nd, 2015

Via the WSJ: By DAN STRUMPF March 22, 2015 5:21 p.m. ET 0 COMMENTS The soaring dollar is crunching profits at giant U.S. multinationals, prompting Wall Street analysts to make their deepest cuts to earnings forecasts since the financial crisis and boosting the appeal of smaller, domestically focused companies. The dollar has jumped 12% in ...

Curtailing the Power of the New York Fed

Sunday, March 22nd, 2015

Aloha from Hawaii. I am enjoying the fruits of  retirement for a few weeks and that is why blogging has been non existent. Attached is a link to an interesting article at Politico.com which addresses the possibility the the time has arrived when the special status of the New York Fed in ...