Archive for February, 2015
Sunday, February 8th, 2015
That is the famous advice that a Revolutionary commander delivered to his troops regarding the proper moment to fire at the enemy at the Battle of Bunker Hill. That is also the advice proffered by former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers regarding the proper moment for the FOMC to raise rates. ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Not Until You See the Whites of Their Eyes
Sunday, February 8th, 2015
The FT reports that the trade surplus in China surged in January with exports down 3.3 percent and imports declining more than 19 percent. Paid pundits and for profit prognosticators had predicted a 6 percent jump in exports and just a 3 percent decline in imports. Some significant portion of ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Exports and Imports Decline in China Trade Data
Saturday, February 7th, 2015
The BIS attributes a chunk of the decline in oil prices to "financial flows". Analysts at the BIS assert that the price declines exceed what one would expect given changes in supply and demand.
I suspect a plethora of sellers and a dearth of buyers led to the decline.
Via the FT:
February ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on BIS on Collapse of Oil Prices
Saturday, February 7th, 2015
Via the WSJ:
By
MATTHEW KARNITSCHNIG And
NEKTARIA STAMOULI in Athens And
BERTRAND BENOIT in Berlin
Updated Feb. 6, 2015 11:37 p.m. ET
118 COMMENTS
Greece warned it was on course to run out of money within weeks if it doesn’t gain access to additional funds, effectively daring Germany and its other European creditors to let it ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Running on Empty
Saturday, February 7th, 2015
Via Bloomberg:
Fidelity Move Creates $100 Billion Gap for Banks: Credit Markets
2015-02-06 14:59:17.429 GMT
(For more credit-market news, click TOP CM. To be sent
this column, click SALT CMW.)
By Cordell Eddings and Liz Capo McCormick
(Bloomberg) -- The push to make money-market funds safer
means the biggest U.S. banks will pay more to borrow while
America’s ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Funding Hole for Banks
Saturday, February 7th, 2015
Via the FT:
February 7, 2015 10:55 am
Merkel warns Ukraine peace plan may fail, but worth the effort
Stefan Wagstyl and Sam Jones in Munich
German chancellor Angela Merkel has warned that she may fail in her last-ditch attempt to ease the Ukraine crisis but said it was worth the effort for the ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Diplomatic Impasse in Ukraine
Saturday, February 7th, 2015
Jon Hilsenrath writes an interesting exposition on the dilemna facing the FOMC. What is the non accelerating inflation rate of unemployment and are we close to that level?
Via the Jon Hilsenrath and the WSJ:
By
Jon Hilsenrath
Feb. 6, 2015 7:08 p.m. ET
The robust January jobs report highlights a dilemma for Federal Reserve ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Hilsenrath on FOMC Dilemma
Friday, February 6th, 2015
Via Bloomberg:
WHAT TO WATCH:
* (All times New York)
Economic Data
* 8:30am: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, Jan., est 230k (prior
252k)
* Change in Private Payrolls, Jan., est. 223k (prior 240k)
* Change in Mfg. Payrolls, Jan., est. 12k (prior 17k)
* Unemployment Rate, Jan., est. 5.6% (prior 5.6%)
* Average Hourly Earnings m/m, Jan., est. 0.3% ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on What to Watch for Today
Friday, February 6th, 2015
Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman:
EU Brinkmanship and US Job Reports in Focus
- Developments in Greece continue to develop around the script of brinkmanship
- The latest IMF reserve data gives some sense of the SNB's activity last month
- Following the strong industrial orders data yesterday, Germany reported disappointing industrial ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on FX
Friday, February 6th, 2015
Dealers report very light volumes overnight with some inconsequential (in notional terms) buying of 3s and 10s by central banks.
Dealers also note that various surveys demonstrate that clients express desire to be a better buyer on a dip today after the labor report.
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Overnight Flows