Archive for February, 2015
Wednesday, February 18th, 2015
Dealers who graciously send me info report that they observe better buying by end users overnight. Real money in Asia bought 10s and 30s and an eclectic group of central bank buyers bought 2s and 3s. One dealer noted that there was duration floating around and observed that there was ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Overnight Flows
Wednesday, February 18th, 2015
Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman:
Sterling Shines
- Strong employment and earnings data in the UK lifted sterling to the upper end of its recent range near $1.5450
- Regarding the FOMC minutes, we don’t see the reference to international developments as a caveat to mid-year tightening
- While European negotiations with ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on FX
Wednesday, February 18th, 2015
Via Bloomberg:
WHAT TO WATCH:
* (All times New York)
Economic Data
* 7:00am: MBA Mortgage Applications, Feb. 13 (prior -9%)
* 8:30am: Housing Starts, Jan., est. 1.070m (prior 1.089m)
* Housing Starts m/m, Jan., est. -1.7% (prior 4.4%)
* Building Permits, Jan., est. 1.069m (prior 1.032m,
revised 1.058m)
* Building Permits m/m, Jan., est. 0.9% (prior -1.9%,
revised 0.6%)
* ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on What to Watch for Today
Tuesday, February 17th, 2015
Household dent rose by $117 billion in Q4. However, the levels of delinquencies (loans past due more than 90 days) is also increasing. In the murky land of student loans 11.3 percent of loans are more than 90 days overdue. Check this on the state of the student loan program. ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Not Heeding the Advice of Polonius
Tuesday, February 17th, 2015
In the spring and summer of 2013 the investment grade 10 year note very rapidly crashed from about 1.60 in May and traded to a high yield of 3.00 around Labor Day in September 2013. We followed a long and winding road but essentially retraced the famous taper tantrum when ...
Posted in Uncategorized | 3 Comments »
Tuesday, February 17th, 2015
Via Richard Gilhooly at TDSecurities:
The chart shows the 5-30s curve vs. the Euro and the deflation
trade that has driven the Euro lower as the market priced in ECB
QE has also been reflected in the US curve flattening through a
combination of lower long yields and US rate hikes sporadically
being priced in. ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Regime Change
Tuesday, February 17th, 2015
Via Bloomberg:
IG CREDIT: List of New Issues Expected to Price in U.S. Today
2015-02-17 15:01:00.2 GMT
By Greg Chang
(Bloomberg) -- The following is a list of new issues
expected to price today:
* Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp. $TBD A1/A+
* Tap of 2018 FRN, tap of 2.45% 1/2020
* IPT 2018 FRN 3mL +55-58, 2.45% 1/2020 ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on New Issue Corps Today
Tuesday, February 17th, 2015
Via Millan Mulraine at TDSecurities:
The regional manufacturing data flow is off to a slow start, with the Empire manufacturing index dipping modestly in February - falling from 9.95 to 7.78. This was a slightly weaker than expected performance and it points to some slippage in US manufacturing sector momentum. However, ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Empire Manufacturing Survey
Tuesday, February 17th, 2015
Via the FT:
February 16, 2015 12:11 pm
Appetite for dining out shows US optimism
To Mark Davis Bailey, a Texas restaurant entrepreneur, the troubles of his state’s oil industry seem a long way away. Tumbling oil prices have put more money in his customers’ pockets, sales at his Original Pancake House franchises ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Eating Out With the Gas Money
Tuesday, February 17th, 2015
Via Bloomberg:
WHAT TO WATCH:
* (All times New York)
Economic Data
* 8:30am: Empire Manufacturing, Feb., est. 8.50 (prior 9.95)
* 10:00am: NAHB Housing Market Index, Feb., est. 58 (prior 57)
* 4:00pm: Net Long-term TIC Flows, Dec. (prior $33.5b)
* Total Net TIC Flows. Dec. (prior -$6.3b)
* Total Net TIC Flows. Dec. (prior -$6.3b)</li></ul>
* Mortgage ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on what to watch for today