Archive for February, 2015

Overnight Flows

Wednesday, February 18th, 2015

Dealers who graciously send me info report that they observe better buying by end users overnight. Real money in Asia bought 10s and 30s and an eclectic group of central bank buyers bought 2s and 3s. One dealer noted that there was duration floating around and observed that there was ...

FX

Wednesday, February 18th, 2015

Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman: Sterling Shines - Strong employment and earnings data in the UK lifted sterling to the upper end of its recent range near $1.5450 - Regarding the FOMC minutes, we don’t see the reference to international developments as a caveat to mid-year tightening - While European negotiations with ...

What to Watch for Today

Wednesday, February 18th, 2015

Via Bloomberg: WHAT TO WATCH: * (All times New York) Economic Data * 7:00am: MBA Mortgage Applications, Feb. 13 (prior -9%) * 8:30am: Housing Starts, Jan., est. 1.070m (prior 1.089m) * Housing Starts m/m, Jan., est. -1.7% (prior 4.4%) * Building Permits, Jan., est. 1.069m (prior 1.032m, revised 1.058m) * Building Permits m/m, Jan., est. 0.9% (prior -1.9%, revised 0.6%) * ...

Not Heeding the Advice of Polonius

Tuesday, February 17th, 2015

Household dent rose by $117 billion in Q4. However, the levels of delinquencies (loans past due more than 90 days) is also increasing. In the murky land of student loans 11.3 percent of loans are more than 90 days overdue. Check this on the state of the student loan program. ...

Fibonacci Number

Tuesday, February 17th, 2015

In the spring and summer of 2013 the investment grade 10 year note very rapidly crashed from about 1.60 in May and traded to a high yield of 3.00 around Labor Day in September 2013. We followed a long and winding road  but essentially retraced the famous taper tantrum when ...

Regime Change

Tuesday, February 17th, 2015

Via Richard Gilhooly at TDSecurities: The chart shows the 5-30s curve vs. the Euro and the deflation trade that has driven the Euro lower as the market priced in ECB QE has also been reflected in the US curve flattening through a combination of lower long yields and US rate hikes sporadically being priced in. ...

New Issue Corps Today

Tuesday, February 17th, 2015

Via Bloomberg: IG CREDIT: List of New Issues Expected to Price in U.S. Today 2015-02-17 15:01:00.2 GMT By Greg Chang (Bloomberg) -- The following is a list of new issues expected to price today: * Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp. $TBD A1/A+ * Tap of 2018 FRN, tap of 2.45% 1/2020 * IPT 2018 FRN 3mL +55-58, 2.45% 1/2020 ...

Empire Manufacturing Survey

Tuesday, February 17th, 2015

Via Millan Mulraine at TDSecurities: The regional manufacturing data flow is off to a slow start, with the Empire manufacturing index dipping modestly in February - falling from 9.95 to 7.78. This was a slightly weaker than expected performance and it points to some slippage in US manufacturing sector momentum. However, ...

Eating Out With the Gas Money

Tuesday, February 17th, 2015

Via the FT: February 16, 2015 12:11 pm Appetite for dining out shows US optimism To Mark Davis Bailey, a Texas restaurant entrepreneur, the troubles of his state’s oil industry seem a long way away. Tumbling oil prices have put more money in his customers’ pockets, sales at his Original Pancake House franchises ...

what to watch for today

Tuesday, February 17th, 2015

Via Bloomberg: WHAT TO WATCH: * (All times New York) Economic Data * 8:30am: Empire Manufacturing, Feb., est. 8.50 (prior 9.95) * 10:00am: NAHB Housing Market Index, Feb., est. 58 (prior 57) * 4:00pm: Net Long-term TIC Flows, Dec. (prior $33.5b) * Total Net TIC Flows. Dec. (prior -$6.3b) * Total Net TIC Flows. Dec. (prior -$6.3b)</li></ul> * Mortgage ...