Archive for February, 2015

Fed and Breakevens

Thursday, February 26th, 2015

This is a guest post by  my friend and former colleague Stephen Liddy: Today's FT has a piece out with some lovely charts and hyper links, to various papers, discussing the FED's different views on the levels of TIPS BEs (inflation compensation) v the levels of {FED5YEAR Index <go>} (reflecting a ...

BreakEven Rally

Thursday, February 26th, 2015

Via Richard Gilhooly at TDSecurities: 5yr Breaks are rallying very strongly today, 7bp higher and making new highs for the year after core CPI came in slightly higher and NSA also printed slightly higher. Yesterday's 4bp rally in 5yr Breaks followed a big squeeze on gasoline futures, which rallied the energy ...

Mechanics of QE in the Eurozone

Thursday, February 26th, 2015

This is a very long piece from Bloomberg on the mechanics of QE as it gets set to begin in the new month. Via Bloomberg: WHAT TO WATCH: Questions Remain on How, And If, ECB QE Will Work 2015-02-26 10:01:17.377 GMT By Deborah L Hyde (Bloomberg) -- Some important details on how QE will work are ...

Albert Edwards Piece

Thursday, February 26th, 2015

Albert Edwards is an equity strategist for SocGen. He is famous as a perma bear on the stock market. However, what  he writes is always thoughtful and always entertaining and I recommend this piece on poor earnings and poor data in the US.

Low Rates

Thursday, February 26th, 2015

I have not been writing much lately as some (minor) health issues and life (I am retired) have intervened. I still read quite a bit of what dealers forward and thought that one former colleague caught the essence of the market in a morning note he sent to customers. He noted ...

FX

Thursday, February 26th, 2015

Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman: - US data will be in focus today; the dollar may be vulnerable to lower CPI print - The market is on the fence about an RBA rate cut, but probability has increased after the disappointing capex data - Meetings by the BOC, BOE, and ECB ...

What to Watch for Today

Thursday, February 26th, 2015

Via Bloomberg: WHAT TO WATCH: * (All times New York) Economic Data * CPI m/m, Jan., est. -0.6% (prior -0.4%, revised -0.3%) * CPI Ex Food and Energy m/m, Jan., est. 0.1% (prior 0.0%, revised 0.1%) * CPI y/y, Jan., est. -0.1% (prior 0.8%) * CPI Ex Food and Energy y/y, Jan., est. 1.6% (prior 1.6%) * CPI Index ...

CPI Preview

Wednesday, February 25th, 2015

Via Stephen Stanley at Amherst Pierpont Securities: Since Chair Yellen and the FOMC have brought inflation back to the forefront of the economic landscape, I wanted to briefly discuss my forecast for tomorrow’s January CPI release.  The headline CPI will be dominated again by the plunge in energy prices.  Gasoline prices ...

Hilsenrath Article

Wednesday, February 25th, 2015

Via Jon Hilsenrath at the WSJ: Tuesday’s testimony to Congress by Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen read like a test-drive for the central bank’s March policy statement. She suggested the Fed will remove from its policy statement an assurance that it will be patient before raising interest rates. Instead, the Fed’s guidance ...

Early Analysis and Thoughts

Wednesday, February 25th, 2015

Via Richard Gilhooly at TDSecurities: Rates have traded in a tight range overnight after a strong rally across the curve yesterday, which followed a 7bp rally in bonds on Monday. The 2.56% auction stop in bonds is now in play and we did test that level overnight before some profit-taking set-in. ...