Archive for January, 2015

Corporate Bond Spreads

Friday, January 23rd, 2015

Via a fully paid up subscriber: 1/22 CLOSE    1/23 OPEN      CHANGE GE  24        89/86          87/84            -2 WFC 24      113/110        109/106          -4 JPM 25      140/137        137/134  ...

Greek Election Notes

Friday, January 23rd, 2015

A fully paid up subscriber across the pond forwarded this my way: Sunday 25th January, 2015: Greek Elections On Sunday, the Greek electorate will head to the polling stations. Current polls indicate a victory for the Syriza party; the main question is now whether or not they will have enough support to ...

What to Watch Today

Friday, January 23rd, 2015

Via Bloomberg: WHAT TO WATCH: * (All times New York) Economic Data * 8:30am: Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, Dec., est. 0.48 (prior 0.73) * 9:45am: Markit US Manufacturing PMI, Jan preliminary, est. 54 (prior 53.9) * 10:00am: Existing Home Sales, Dec., est. 5.08m (prior 4.93m) * Existing Home Sales m/m, Dec., est. 3% (prior -6.1%) * Existing Home Sales m/m, ...

FX

Friday, January 23rd, 2015

Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman: ECB Drives Markets - The ECB's announcement helped spur a new round of dollar-buying against most of the majors, save the yen - For us, the biggest surprise was the open-ended nature of the ECB’s purchases, while the more significant problem is its efficacy - In ...

Drachma Pricing

Friday, January 23rd, 2015

In case you are wondering about the value of a new Greek Drachma here is an excerpt from the morning research note of Kit Juckes at SocGen. Via SocGen: Fair value of the drachma - Should Greece leave the eurozone in a well-controlled fashion, a new Drachma (GRD) could fall at least ...

January 23 2014 Opening

Friday, January 23rd, 2015

Prices of Treasury coupon securities rallied in overnight trading as they traded in sympathy with a continued rally in European sovereign bonds. In the overnight session the 10 year Bund traded as low as 31 basis points.  The spread between Germany and the US in the 10 year sector has ...

Corporate Bond Trading Yesterday: Very Heavy

Friday, January 23rd, 2015

I rarely,if ever, comment on this post but there is an interesting nugget in here which deserves highlighting. Bloomberg reports that secondary market trading of corporate bonds totaled $18.2 billion yesterday. If I am reading the story correctly then it was the 20th busiest day since 2005 and beat 99.2 ...

Eclectic Stuff Via Merrill Lynch Research

Thursday, January 22nd, 2015

Via Merrill Lynch Research The relative underperformance of credit today reflects on the ECB's decision to bypass corporate bonds as eligible for QE. While US credit benefits indirectly from today's ECB announcements, risks such as oil prices and Greece remain. Thus we maintain our bearish stance on US IG credit spreads over the ...

Canarsie Crash

Thursday, January 22nd, 2015

This is an amazing story here in which a hedge fund manager morphed $98  million of assets (last March) into just $200,000 in assets this week. One of the principals of the firm was just 28 year old and 26 when he launched the ill fated enterprise. Even more interesting is ...

Epic Deflation

Thursday, January 22nd, 2015

Several people sent me this article which contains apocalyptic predictions from Larry Summers. Via the UK Telegraph: Larry Summers Warns of Epochal Deflationary Crisis If Fed Tightens Too Soon Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Jan. 22 (Telegraph) -- Former US treasury secretary also says eurozone QE has come too late to lift the region off the reefs ...