Archive for January, 2015
Monday, January 5th, 2015
Via Merrill Lynch:
Rapidly declining oil tends to pull down risky asset valuations and long term interest rates.
As our commodities strategists have argued this high oil price volatility is likely to persist, with further downside to oil.
Once oil stabilizes and Greece plays out credit may well rally meaningfully - but then ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Eclectic Topics Via Merrill Lynch Research
Monday, January 5th, 2015
This is an interesting article on how the course of trading in the early days of the year correlates with the final results for that year.
Via the FT:
January 5, 2015 7:05 pm
Why first trading day of new year matters
James Mackintosh
As goes January, so goes the year. The old saying worked ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on January Effect
Monday, January 5th, 2015
The collapse in oil prices took its toll on the TIPS market today. One trader noted that 10 year breaks opened at 170 and immediately headed south closing at 164. The 5 year break closed at 115.9 and 30 year breaks closed 188.
Dealers report some end user buying of breakevens ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Ugly TIPS
Monday, January 5th, 2015
David Ader of CRT Capital reports that volumes in the Treasury market today were 180 percent of the prior 10 day moving average. Those days suffered as we were in holiday mode but nevertheless the rally in bonds and the crater in equities and buyers and sellers writing tickets for ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Busy Day in Treasury Market
Monday, January 5th, 2015
The yield curve has marginally reversed and is a tad steeper than where it was back around 1015AM. The 5s 30s spread is a basis point steeper at 104.3 and 5s 10s 9s 0.5 steeper at 48 basis points.
One veteran market maker reports buying from momentum players and rate lock ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Treasury Update (2)
Monday, January 5th, 2015
Via Marketwatch:
Fed's Williams sees gradual pace of tightening
By Greg Robb
Published: Jan 5, 2015 11:13 a.m. ET
BOSTON (MarketWatch) - The pace of upcoming rate hikes should be "pretty gradual" over the next few years, said John Williams, the president of the San Francisco Fed, on Monday. In a sit down with ...
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Monday, January 5th, 2015
This is very early in the day for this but Robert Sinche at Amherst Pierpont Securities has released his preview of the data points which will influence trading in the overnight session.
Via Robert Sinche at Amherst Pierpont Securities:
AUSTRALIA: Trade Balance data for November will provide more information on the impact ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Overnight Preview
Monday, January 5th, 2015
Swap spreads are mixed today. Two year spreads are wider by 3/4 basis point. In the belly of the curve 5 year spreads are flat. In the longer end the 10 year spread and the 30 year spread are each tighter by 1/4 basis point.
The popular trade is to position ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Swap Spreads
Monday, January 5th, 2015
Treasury market is flying. Dealers report buying across the curve with the concentration in the long end. The Long Bond trades at 2.60 and the the lowest yield recorded since man learned to walk erect was 2.53 in December 2008 in the post Lehman Brother bankruptcy carnage.
Several factors motivate the ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Treasury Miscellany
Monday, January 5th, 2015
Mortgages are 1+ to 2+ tighter to Treasuries this morning. Hedge funds and end users have each jumped in on the buy side of the ledger. Origination has been light and the Fed buying keeps pressure on shorts.
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on MBS