Archive for January, 2015

MBS

Tuesday, January 6th, 2015

Mortgages are opening unchanged to Treasuries to as much as 4 ticks wider (in the higher coupons). One trader in a note offered the view that MBS are not cheap but technicals are superior with Fed buying swamping origination. For example the Fed will be in buying about $1.9 billion ...

JPMorgan Duration Survey

Tuesday, January 6th, 2015

Via Bloomberg: RATES: Client Shorts Fall as New Year Begins, JPM Survey Says 2015-01-06 12:10:53.970 GMT By Robert Elson (Bloomberg) -- The JPMorgan Treasury Client Survey for the week ended Jan. 5 vs week ended Dec. 15. * Longs 17 vs 15 * Neutrals 66 vs 61 * Shorts 17 vs 24 * Net Longs 0 vs -9 * "The ...

What to Watch for Today

Tuesday, January 6th, 2015

Via Bloomberg: WHAT TO WATCH: * (All times New York) Economic Data * 9:45am: Markit US Composite PMI, Dec. final (prior 53.8) * Markit US Services PMI, Dec. final, est. 53.7 (prior 53.6) * Markit US Services PMI, Dec. final, est. 53.7 (prior 53.6)</li></ul> * 10:00am: Factory Orders, Nov., est. -0.5% (prior -0.70%) * 10:00am: ISM Non-Manufac. Composite, Dec., est. ...

FX

Tuesday, January 6th, 2015

Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman: Oil Continues to Tumble, Driving Yields Lower - Oil prices are tumbling following yesterday's announcement by Saudi Arabia of deeper discounts for the US and Europe, and is spurring a significant decline in bond yields - The yen is being lifted by the drop in US ...

Secondary market Corporate Bond Trading Yesterday

Tuesday, January 6th, 2015

Via Bloomberg: IG CREDIT: Long Bonds Most Active; PHILIP, RENTEN to Price 2015-01-06 10:53:48.539 GMT By Robert Elson (Bloomberg) -- The final Trace count for secondary trading was $11.8b vs $1.9b Friday. 2014 secondary trading high was in Jan., low in Dec. * 144a trading added $2.3b of IG volume * Most active issues longer than 2 years * ...

January 06 2015

Tuesday, January 6th, 2015

Prices of Treasury coupons posted another round of gains in overnight trading as the risk off climate, deflation/disinflation fears, and concerns regarding the Greek elections dominate trading. The dollar remains in a bull market against virtually all currencies and that reality is guiding investment flows to the US. The yield ...

Executing Sovereign Bond Buying in Europe

Tuesday, January 6th, 2015

This one is also from a fully paid up subscriber (across the pond) and as he says is making the rounds in Europe. The source is in the Netherlands and the article describes some ECB working papers which suggest an operational plan for the ECB when (if?) it decides to ...

Prepare for Another Round of Very Low Rates

Tuesday, January 6th, 2015

A fully paid up subscriber forwarded to me some research from Scotia Bank. The analysts, Guy Hasselman and John Zawada, posit that the key to understanding markets in 2015 is the dollar. They assert that the dollar will appreciate in 2015 and it does not matter what the FOMC policy ...

From the Schadenfreude Department

Monday, January 5th, 2015

This one you could not make up. It seems that liberal citadel Harvard has imposed higher health care costs on faculty and staff (many of whom were full throated supporters of the legislation) and now the faculty is in an uproar about the "pay cut". It is good to peer ...

JPMorgan Unwound

Monday, January 5th, 2015

I spent a large chunk of my bond market career at the House of Morgan (buy the book by Ron Chernow) with about 7 year at Chase Manhattan Bank and with 11 years at JPMorgan. I was a victim of the Chase takeover of JPM as the bank portfolio was ...