Archive for January, 2015
Sunday, January 11th, 2015
Professor James Hamilton is the proprietor of the highly regarded Econbrowser blog and in a recent post there he deconstructs the decline in the price of oil into supply and demand components. Here is the relevant excerpt:
That is, of the $55 drop in the price of oil since the start ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Supply and Demand in the Oil Market
Sunday, January 11th, 2015
Wage growth has been slow but that has not caused them to refrain from spending during the Christmas season. This story from the FT chronicles the strong pace of spending over November and December in the US.
Via the FT:
Festive cheer for US retailers as sales hit decade high
Mamta Badkar
US retailers ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Ebullient Consumers
Sunday, January 11th, 2015
According to this WSJ story the glut in commodities will be with us for quite some time.
Via the WSJ:
By
Georgi Kantchev,
Ese Erheriene and
Neena Rai
Jan. 11, 2015 4:47 p.m. ET
0 COMMENTS
Two years ago, Daniel Nilsson ’s family bought a hotel in the town of Pajala, Sweden, some 50 miles above the Arctic ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Commodity Glut
Sunday, January 11th, 2015
Earnings season begins this week for equities and the WSJ reports profits will be squeezed in the energy sector by the spectacular collapse in oil prices and across all sectors by the strength in the dollar. Stocks have been wobbly at the start of the year so it will be ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Earnings Season for Equities
Saturday, January 10th, 2015
Via Robert Sinche of Amherst Pierpont Securities:
CHINA: Over the next few days the December monetary data and the yearend reserves report are set to be released. On the reserve data, we would note that reserves are reported in USD terms, so the decline of various currencies versus the USD suggests ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Weekend Data Preview
Friday, January 9th, 2015
There is something bizarre about the Fed buying bonds, building a Brobdingnagian sized portfolio, and then turning the profits over to the Treasury. It is a modern day version of the medieval discussion regarding how many angels are capable of sitting on the head of a pin. If we use ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Record Profits for the Fed
Friday, January 9th, 2015
Via the WSJ:
Closely Watched Inflation Gauge Falls to Lowest Level in 14 Years
Five-Year Forward Five-Year Break-Even Rate Tumbles to 1.8648%
By MIN ZENG
Jan. 9, 2015 12:52 p.m. ET
1 COMMENTS
An inflation gauge closely watched by Federal Reserve officials has fallen to the lowest level in more than 14 years, extending a decline ...
Posted in Uncategorized | 1 Comment »
Friday, January 9th, 2015
From GS: NEW EURUSD FORECAST:
We are revising down our forecast further today, to 1.14, 1.11 and 1.08 in 3, 6
and 12 months (from 1.23, 1.20 and 1.15 before).
We are also revising down our longer-term forecasts, bringing the end-2016
forecast to 1.00 (from 1.05) and that for end-2017 to 0.90 (from 1.00).
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Careening Toward Parity
Friday, January 9th, 2015
Via Eric Green at TDSecurities:
At face value the December jobs report looks great with jobs rising more than expected and the unemployment rate falling to a fresh low of the cycle. Despite this, however, we would grade this report no better than a B owing to ongoing disappoint in both ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Labor Data
Friday, January 9th, 2015
C 24 131/128 133/130 +2
WFC 24 107/104 108/105 +1
BAC 24 131/128 133/130 +2
JPM 24 118/115 120/117 ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Corporate Bond Spreads