Archive for January, 2015

January 13 2015 Opening

Tuesday, January 13th, 2015

Prices of Treasury coupon securities have continued their astounding surge  as the price of oil continue to tumble. In overnight trading oil has dropped below $45 and the 10 year note has tested the levels attained in the famous short squeeze of October 15 2014. That is about a 1.85 ...

Trenchant Analysis

Monday, January 12th, 2015

In the interest of full disclosure the author, RIchard Gilhooly, is a friend and former colleague. Notwithstanding  former his association with me he writes great stuff that will get the synapses in the brain firing. Via Richard Gilhooly at TDSecurities: Short and intermediate Treasuries continue to have a strong bid ahead of ...

Today’s New Issue Corporate Supply

Monday, January 12th, 2015

Via Bloomberg and it is long: IG CREDIT: List of New Issues Expected to Price in U.S. Today 2015-01-12 15:01:00.2 GMT By Greg Chang (Bloomberg) -- The following is a list of new issues expected to price today: * Export-Import Bank of Korea $benchmark Aa3/A+ * 5Y, 10Y * IPT 5Y +105, 10Y +120 both area * Denoms: 200k ...

Bank America Thinks 1.60 10 Year Possible

Monday, January 12th, 2015

I believe that when the "taper tanturm"began in May 2013 the 10 year was trading at 1.60 percent. In that ugly spasm the 10 year retreated to 3 percent by labor Day and has rarely looked back since. So the full round trip back to 1.60 would be fitting and ...

What to watch for today

Monday, January 12th, 2015

Via Bloomberg: WHAT TO WATCH: * (All times New York) Economic Data * 10:00am: Fed’s Labor Market Conditions Index, Dec. (prior 2.9) Central Banks * 12:40pm: Fed’s Lockhart speaks in Atlanta Supply * 11:00am: U.S. to announce plans for auction of 4W bills * 11:30am: U.S. to sell $24b 3M, $24b 6M bills * 1:00pm: U.S. to sell $24b 3Y notes

Supply Consideration

Monday, January 12th, 2015

David Ader at CRT Capital comments on this week's auctions auctions of 3s 10s and 30s. He notes the accelerated schedule with auctions Monday through Wednesday rather than the normal Tuesday through Thursday. That is a function of Thursday being the 15th which is settlement day so an auction that ...

FX

Monday, January 12th, 2015

Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman: Drivers for the Week Ahead - The greatest risk to the divergence theme is that the consensus would swing against ideas that the Federal Reserve will raise rates near mid-year - The preliminary negative inflation print in the euro area is likely to be confirmed this ...

Winners and Losers in the Energy market

Monday, January 12th, 2015

Via Merrill Lynch Research: Our BAC internal data show a decline in spending at the pump, which is intuitive given the drop in gas prices. Consumers are spending some of the windfall cash - quick service restaurants have benefited, with a pick-up in December. However, on the downside, the sharp drop in oil ...

Corporate Bonds

Monday, January 12th, 2015

Via Bloomberg; IG CREDIT: Volume Lower; ANZ, EIBKOR to Price; AA Earnings Today 2015-01-12 10:52:51.736 GMT By Robert Elson (Bloomberg) -- The final Trace count for secondary trading was $12.4b vs $18b Thursday; 2014 high was $19.5b, Jan. 15. * 144a trading added $1.9b of IG volume vs $2.4b * Most active issues longer than 2 years * ...

January 12 2015 Opening

Monday, January 12th, 2015

Prices of Treasury coupon securities have slipped from the robust levels which prevailed at the close of business on Friday. On Friday bond bulls took solace in the employment report as an examination of the entrails of that report showed that while growth in employment is solid wages are quite ...