Archive for December, 2014

Obama Amnesty Action Deemed Unconstituional

Tuesday, December 16th, 2014

The Volokh Conspiracy blog at the Washington Post reports that a Federal District Court judge in Pittsburgh has declared President Obama's executive order amnesty for illegal immigrants unconstitutional. The ruling was in a criminal case and in the real world it will not affect the broad fiat issued by the President ...

Russia

Tuesday, December 16th, 2014

This is an interesting piece at the WSJ website on the problems confronting Russia. The article notes that Russia has only a short time to right its ship before panic takes hold. Thus far the citizenry there is calm but the financial ship will become untethered if citizens head to ...

Eclectic Stuff From Merrill Lynch

Tuesday, December 16th, 2014

Via Merrill Lynch Research: One reason credit has been very weak is the acceleration of US data and increasing rate hiking risk. Our economists have highlighted the risk that tomorrows FOMC meeting comes off on the hawkish side. That highlights the risk of an acceleration of outflows from short duration high grade funds ...

Overnight Preview

Tuesday, December 16th, 2014

Courtesy of Robert Sinche at Amherst Pierpont Securities: CHINA: After the disappointing (49.5) print for the Markit preliminary manufacturing PMI, Market News (MNI) presents its first December reading on its overall Business Conditions Index, which posted a surprising ump to 55.2 in November from 51.7 in October; a slide back lower ...

Some Treasury Market Thoughts

Tuesday, December 16th, 2014

I have spoken to several market participants this afternoon regarding the state of the market and what they anticipate tomorrow from Yellen and her attendant lords and ladies. All of the participants with who I conversed believe that "considerable period" is history. However, the consensus was that Ms Yellen would ...

Housing Starts

Tuesday, December 16th, 2014

Via Stephen Stanley at Amherst Pierpont Securities: Given the volatility in the housing starts series, November’s results were pretty close to expectations.  The November figure came in slightly below consensus expectations at 1.028 million annualized units.  The modest shortfall was offset by a sizable upward revision to the October reading (36K).  ...

Corporate Bond Spreads

Tuesday, December 16th, 2014

Via a fully paid up subscriber you can observe that long dated financial paper is struggling this morning as a risk off mentality dominates trading. BANK/FIN ON THE RUN OPEN  ***END ACCOUNTS*** 12/15 CLOSE    12/16 OPEN      CHANGE C  24      135/131        140/136          ...

JPMorgan Duration Survey

Tuesday, December 16th, 2014

Via Bloomberg: RATES: Both Longs and Shorts Fall in Latest JPM Survey 2014-12-16 12:10:30.967 GMT By Robert Elson (Bloomberg) -- The JPMorgan Treasury Client Survey for the week ended Dec. 15 vs week ended Dec. 8. * Longs 15 vs 20 * Neutrals 61 vs 53 * Shorts 24 vs 27 * Net longs -9 vs -7 * "The all ...

Random Musings

Tuesday, December 16th, 2014

The belly of the Treasury curve is on fire in this move. The 5s 10s. 5s 30s and 10s 30s spreads are all steeper than they were when I first marked them at 500AM. I note also that the Brazil real is melting too. That currency has moved from 2.69 to ...

What to Watch for Today

Tuesday, December 16th, 2014

Via the good folks at BLoomberg; WHAT TO WATCH: * (All times New York) Economic Data * 8:30am: Housing Starts, Nov., est. 1.040m (prior 1.009m) * Housing Starts m/m, Nov., est. 3.1% (prior -2.8%) * Building Permits, Nov., est. 1.065m (prior 1.080m, revised 1.092m) * Building Permits m/m, Nov., est. -2.5% (prior 4.8%, prior 5.9%) * Building Permits m/m, Nov., ...