Archive for December, 2014

FX

Friday, December 19th, 2014

Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman: Dollar Firm As Correction Ends - For many investors, today marks the end of the year, but it is ending on a favorable note - Too many people were doing all kinds of mental and verbal gymnastics to account for what was a technical move ...

Regarding QE in Europe

Friday, December 19th, 2014

Reuters is carrying an interesting story on a plan which would require less credit worthy sovereigns to set up a reserve to protect against losses on any of its bonds purchased in a new QE program which would entail outright buying of sovereign bonds. The purpose of the plan is ...

Overnight Data

Thursday, December 18th, 2014

Via Robert Sinche at Amherst Pierpont Securities: JAPAN: BOJ Policy Board Meeting, with no change expected to the ¥80trn target rise for the monetary base in 2015. Also will get the October reading on the All Industry Activity Index, which the BBerg consensus expects to be unchanged compared to the 1.0% ...

Treasury market thoughts

Thursday, December 18th, 2014

The Treasury market has continued the spiral lower in price (and if the inverse relationship between price and yield remains intact,higher in yield) which began during the Yellen press conference yesterday. I think there are several reasons for the sell off today. Some of this is an unwind of the last ...

TIPS Result

Thursday, December 18th, 2014

Via CRT Capital: * 5-year TIPS auction stops at 0.395% vs. a 0.387% 1:00 PM bid WI. * Bid/Cover 2.37 vs. 2.53 average. * Dealers were awarded 30% vs. 54% average for 5-year TIPS. * Indirects get 64.8% vs. 40% norm. * Directs take 5.2% vs. 6% average. * Dealer Hit-Ratio: Dealers take 22% of what ...

Jobless Claims

Thursday, December 18th, 2014

Via Stephen Stanley at Amherst Pierpont Securities: Initial jobless claims fell by 6,000 in the week ended December 13 to 289,000.  The number of new filers has been between 289K and 297K in 5 of the last 6 weeks, suggesting that we may have settled in just below 300K.  The readings ...

Think Tank on FOMC

Thursday, December 18th, 2014

Several fully paid up subscribers are reporting that a think tank is putting out a report that the FOMC will fully remove "considerable period " in January. The cycle of rate hikes is likely to begin mid year.

Corporate Bond Spreads

Thursday, December 18th, 2014

Spreads have ratcheted in with risk markets ebullient this morning. Via a fully paid up subscriber: 12/17 CLOSE    12/18 OPEN      CHANGE C  24      135/132        131/128          -4 WFC 24      113/110        109/106          -4 BAC 24    ...

What to Watch Today

Thursday, December 18th, 2014

Via Bloomberg: WHAT TO WATCH: * (All times New York) Economic Data * 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, Dec. 13, est. 295k (prior 294k) * Continuing Claims, Dec. 6, est. 2.435m (prior 2.514m) * Continuing Claims, Dec. 6, est. 2.435m (prior 2.514m)</li></ul> * 9:45am: Markit US Composite PMI, Dec. preliminary (prior 56.1) * Markit US Services PMI, Dec. preliminary, est. 56.2 (prior ...

FX

Thursday, December 18th, 2014

Via Marc Chandler at Brown brothers Harriman: - There were four notable changes in the FOMC statement - We continue to see the most likely scenario for the first rate hike in June - The Swiss National Bank announced a negative 25 bp interest rate on sight deposits and lowered the 3-month ...