Archive for December, 2014
Sunday, December 14th, 2014
The oil minister of the United Arab Emirates said today that even oil at $40 would not motivate the (former) cartel to cut production. He repeated that the group is waiting for the market to stabilize and that process could take six months.
Via Bloomberg:
U.A.E. Sees OPEC Output Unchanged Even If ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on UAE Oil Minister Says OPEC in No Hurry to Cut Production
Friday, December 12th, 2014
I use this gentleman's work quite often and he is a friend and former colleague. Richard Gilhooly at TDSecurities has penned a thoughtful piece which will stimulate your brain. He suggests that we are seeing an unwind of the oil shock of the 1970s which pushed us into the inflationary ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on “Bernanke as the Inverse Volcker”
Friday, December 12th, 2014
Via Richard Gilhooly at TDSecurities:
The 2010 lows in 5yr Breaks are at hand, just 1bp away at 115bp, as 5yr real yields are making new highs and 5bp higher on the day, at 30bp real yield, while 5yr nominal yields are 5bp lower. Volumes are light, with 5yr Breaks 10bp ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on TIPS
Friday, December 12th, 2014
Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman:
Dollar Consolidates as Oil Slide Continues
- Markets are reacting to the cuts in demand forecast by OPEC and IEA
- The decline in oil prices not only pushed down bond yields, but spurred sharp losses in the equity markets and a setback in the US ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on FX
Friday, December 12th, 2014
Via Bloomberg:
WHAT TO WATCH:
* (All times New York)
Economic Data
* 8:30am: PPI Final Demand m/m, Nov., est. -0.1% (prior 0.2%)
* PPI Ex Food and Energy m/m, Nov., est. 0.1% (prior 0.4%)
* PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade m/m, Nov., est. 0.1% (prior
0.1%)
* PPI Final Demand y/y, Nov., est. 1.4% (prior 1.5%)
* PPI ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on What to Watch for Today
Thursday, December 11th, 2014
Via CRT Capital:
30-year Auction Outlook
** In our auction write-ups this week we mentioned that we were cutting out the verbiage to focus on the bullets and technical analysis. We heard nothing back in term of disliking this approach or, for that matter, liking it. SO WE ASK, other than the ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Thirty Year Auction
Thursday, December 11th, 2014
Via Richard Gilhooly at TDSecurities:
Bonds traded to a new low yield of 2.80% this morning before reversing on stronger than expected retail sales data and set-up for the 30yr bond auction. The curve initially flattened 2bp on retail sales as the bond held up, but supply at 1pm presented an ...
Posted in Uncategorized | 1 Comment »
Thursday, December 11th, 2014
Via Marc Chandler at Brown Brothers Harriman:
Norges Surprises, TLTRO Disappoints
- There have been a number of surprise developments today, including the less dovish Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the 25 bp cut from Norway's central bank
- Banks borrowed about 130 bln euros from the TLTRO facility – more than ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on FX
Thursday, December 11th, 2014
Via Bloomberg:
WHAT TO WATCH:
* (All times New York)
Economic Data
* 8:30am: Retail Sales Advance, Nov., est. 0.4% (prior 0.3%)
* Retail Sales Ex Auto, Nov., est. 0.1% (prior 0.3%)
* Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas, Nov., est. 0.5% (prior
0.6%)
* Retail Sales Control Group, Nov., est. 0.5% (prior 0.5%)
* Retail Sales Control Group, ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on What to Watch for Today
Wednesday, December 10th, 2014
Via Robert Sinche at Amherst Pierpont Securities:
For those who follow Central bank decisions…Thursday will bring policy announcements from the Central Banks of Switzerland, S. Korea, Chile, Peru, New Zealand, Philippines, Indonesia, Norway, Russia and Serbia. The one to watch appears to be RUSSIA, with the BBerg consensus now expecting a ...
Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Overnight Data